So, you’re planning for Valentine’s Day in Texas and probably wondering: what kind of weather will you get? Honestly, the state’s geography and sheer size make things unpredictable. Most years, you’ll get mild afternoons in the 60s or low 70s across much of Texas, but cold fronts and rain do show up.
You might step out to a warm evening in South Texas, while someone up in North Texas is bundling up against freezing air. Coastal spots like Galveston usually stay milder. But, believe it or not, even Houston has caught a rare snow flurry in mid-February.
Rain isn’t rare. Some years bring steady showers, others are bone dry.
If you know these patterns, you can plan better. Booking an outdoor dinner or a weekend trip? Valentine’s Day in Texas can swing from sunny and comfy to chilly and damp. Knowing the possibilities really helps avoid surprises.
Typical Valentine’s Day Temperatures in Texas
Texas mid-February temps can swing all over the place, depending on your spot. Coastal areas usually feel milder. Inland cities sometimes get sharp cold snaps, dropping below freezing.
Warm afternoons do happen, but mornings can stay chilly.
Average Highs and Lows by Major City
On Valentine’s Day, Houston often sees highs near 67°F and lows around 47°F. Some years, highs spike into the low 80s, but rare lows have dropped into the teens.
Dallas usually gets highs in the mid-60s and lows in the low 40s. Cold fronts can shove temps into the 20s, but daytime warmth tends to rebound fast.
Austin averages highs in the mid-60s, lows in the mid-40s. Freezing mornings do happen, but afternoons often climb back into the 60s or even 70s.
Over in Galveston, things stay milder. Valentine’s Day highs average about 63°F, with lows near 52°F. Freezing is rare, though a stiff north wind can make it feel colder.
Regional Variations Across the State
The Gulf Coast is usually the most stable, with fewer temperature swings and less risk of freezing. Cities like Galveston often stay in the 60s during the day and 50s at night.
In Central Texas, including Austin and College Station, you’ll see more ups and downs. Highs can reach the 70s, but cold fronts sometimes drop lows into the 30s or 20s.
North Texas (think Dallas–Fort Worth) is prone to sharp cold fronts. Temperatures there can go from mild 60s to near-freezing in just a day.
The Panhandle and West Texas are the coldest. Valentine, Amarillo, and Lubbock often top out in the 50s, with lows below freezing. Snow isn’t common, but it’s more likely here than anywhere else in Texas.
Temperature Trends Over Recent Years
Looking back over the last century, Texas Valentine’s Days usually bring mild afternoons, but sometimes extreme cold crashes the party. Houston once dropped to 10°F way back in 1899. Galveston has even dipped into the 30s.
Lately, warmer Valentine’s Days are popping up more often. Houston and Galveston both hit upper 70s and low 80s in recent years. These warm spells just show how wild Texas weather can be—don’t expect steady patterns.
Even with the warm streaks, cold snaps still happen. Houston gets subfreezing mornings about once a decade, and it’s more common up north and out west. This mix of warm afternoons and surprise freezes makes outdoor planning a bit of a gamble unless you check the forecast.
Precipitation Patterns and Rainfall
Rain on Valentine’s Day isn’t super common in Texas, but it happens enough that you can’t ignore it. Some years are dry and mild, while others see measurable rain or even rare snow. Where you are in the state makes a big difference.
Average Rainfall on February 14
On average, Valentine’s Day stays pretty dry. In Houston, long-term records show about 0.11 inches of rain on this date. Galveston comes in a bit lower at 0.08 inches, and College Station averages around 0.09 inches.
Most years, you won’t see measurable rain. Houston gets light rain or more about every other year, while Galveston and College Station see it closer to once every three years.
Snow? Almost never, but it’s happened. Houston’s 20-inch snowstorm in 1895 is still one of the wildest extreme weather events in Texas history. It just proves that mid-February weather can surprise you.
Notable Rainy Valentine’s Days
A few Valentine’s Days have stood out for soaking rains. In Houston, 1895 saw nearly 1.90 inches—the same storm that dumped heavy snow. Other wet years: 1944, 1959, and 1969, each with over an inch of rain.
College Station had its wettest in 1959 with 1.90 inches. Years like 1944 and 1969 also brought more than an inch. These are outliers, but they show mid-February can bring a deluge.
Galveston doesn’t usually get as much. The wettest Valentine’s Day there was 2009 with 0.82 inches. Other years like 1959 and 1969 brought over half an inch.
Regional Differences in Precipitation
Your Texas location really changes your odds of rain on Valentine’s Day. Coastal areas like Galveston stay milder and a bit wetter, but rainfall totals are still modest. Inland cities such as College Station and Houston have a higher chance for heavy rain or the odd snow.
Out west in places like Valentine, Texas, it’s much drier. This desert region averages only about 12 inches of rain per year, so February 14 is usually dry. Rain is rare compared to the Gulf Coast.
If you’re traveling, expect more weather swings in eastern Texas. Gulf moisture can bring light showers or, occasionally, winter storms. Western Texas, by contrast, usually has clearer skies and little rain on the holiday.
Extreme Weather Events on Valentine’s Day
Texas has had Valentine’s Days with record-breaking heat, bitter cold, snow, ice, and even heavy rain. Temperatures have swung more than 60 degrees from year to year, and some events really stand out.
Record Highs and Lows
You might get summer-like warmth or a winter chill on February 14 in Texas. In San Antonio, the warmest Valentine’s Day hit 92°F in 2014. The coldest afternoon high only reached 30°F in 2021.
Dallas and Houston have seen their share of wide swings. Highs in the 80s have happened, but Arctic fronts have dropped daytime highs into the 30s. These sharp contrasts just show how unpredictable Texas weather is in mid-February.
Here’s a quick look at San Antonio’s extremes:
| Year | High Temp | Conditions |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 92°F | Record heat |
| 2021 | 30°F | Record cold |
| 2000 | 83°F | Warm spell |
| 1951 | 33°F | Cold outbreak |
So, you might need short sleeves one year and a heavy coat the next.
Historic Freezes and Snowfalls
The 2021 winter outbreak stands out as one of the most memorable. Snow, ice, and days of subfreezing temperatures hit much of Texas. Power outages, frozen pipes, and dangerous roads made it a pretty rough Valentine’s week.
Earlier records show similar cold snaps. In 1895 and 1951, San Antonio only reached 30–33°F on Valentine’s Day. Snow has fallen on the holiday, though not every year. In North and Central Texas, measurable snow shows up about once every few decades on February 14.
Even a little snow can cause big travel headaches in Texas since most folks and road crews aren’t used to it. If you’re planning a trip in mid-February, check for freezing rain or snow just in case.
Noteworthy Weather Anomalies
Rain has made a splash on several Valentine’s Days. In San Antonio, 2017 brought 1.39 inches of rain, making it the wettest on record. Other years have seen steady showers that cooled things down and made outdoor plans a muddy mess.
Texas has also had some weird weather swings. Some years, a cold front has dropped temperatures by more than 30 degrees in just a few hours. Other times, warm winds from the south have pushed readings into the low 80s, making it feel like spring way too early.
These oddities really show how Texas sits at the crossroads of Gulf moisture, desert air, and Arctic chill. If you’re prepping for Valentine’s Day, expect the unexpected. Maybe pack an umbrella, dress in layers, or be ready for icy roads.
Weather Forecasting for Valentine’s Day in Texas
Forecasting Texas weather in mid-February means watching both short-term trends and long-term climate records. You’ll often see temperature swings, cold fronts, and shifting rain chances depending on where you are.
How Forecasts Are Made
Meteorologists pull from historical climate data, satellite images, radar, and computer models to predict Valentine’s Day weather. In Texas, this is extra tricky because the state sits between warm Gulf air and cooler continental air. These systems collide and bring sharp changes in temperature and rain.
Short-term forecasts rely on high-res models that update every few hours. These models track cold fronts, rain, and wind shifts. For example, a front rolling through North Texas can bring freezing temps, while South Texas might just cool off a bit.
Longer-range forecasts—like those a week out—aren’t as precise. They focus on bigger trends, like whether a cold spell or a warm-up is coming. Remember, mid-February is a transition period, so things can change fast.
Forecasters compare current model runs with past Valentine’s Day records. This gives you a better idea if you should expect a chilly night, a warm afternoon, or even a rare snow in your area.
Recent Valentine’s Day Forecasts
Recent forecasts really highlight how unpredictable this holiday is in Texas. Some years, Houston and Galveston have reached the upper 70s, while College Station and Dallas woke up to freezing mornings. Records even show snowfall has happened, like Houston’s wild 20-inch storm in 1895.
Lately, cold fronts have stolen the show. For example, a front sweeping through central Texas can drop morning temps into the 30s or 40s, even if the afternoon bounces back into the 60s. Meanwhile, South Texas cities like San Antonio usually stay milder, with lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s or 70s.
Rain chances jump around, too. Houston averages about 0.11 inches of rain on Valentine’s Day, but most years are dry. Galveston averages a bit less, though coastal spots can see light showers thanks to Gulf moisture.
If you’re planning anything, it’s smart to check both the short-term forecast and historical averages. That way, you’ll have the best shot at knowing if you should expect a cool, damp evening or one of those warm, sunny Texas days.
Planning Activities Around Typical Valentine’s Day Weather
Texas weather in mid-February can swing wildly. Some afternoons warm up into the 70s, but nights might drop near freezing.
Some years bring light rain, and every once in a while, a rare cold front will roll in with much lower temps. If you plan with a bit of flexibility, you’ll probably enjoy the day no matter what the forecast says.
Outdoor Date Ideas
On mild February days, Texans often take advantage of outdoor plans. Houston and College Station usually see highs in the mid-60s, while Galveston tends to hover around the low 60s.
Some years, you’ll get lucky and see temps climb into the upper 70s or even hit the low 80s.
Try activities like:
- Picnics in local parks—Hermann Park in Houston or Research Park in College Station are great picks.
- Beach walks along Galveston’s seawall if the coastal breeze isn’t too chilly.
- Hiking at Brazos Bend State Park or Sam Houston National Forest, since their trails stay open year-round.
Rain doesn’t happen often, but it’s possible, so toss a light jacket or umbrella in your bag just in case. Evening temps drop fast, and you’ll appreciate some layers if you’re out for a sunset stroll or an outdoor dinner.
Indoor Alternatives for Unfavorable Weather
Sometimes a cold front sweeps in, and suddenly you’re dealing with temps in the 30s or 40s, especially if you’re inland. Every now and then, Houston or College Station even gets freezing weather or a dusting of snow.
Rain showers pop up every few years, which can really take the fun out of outdoor plans.
Indoor options keep things flexible:
- Museums—the Houston Museum of Natural Science or The Bryan Museum in Galveston both offer plenty to see.
- Cooking classes or wine tastings, which are honestly a pretty relaxing way to spend the day inside.
- Local theaters and live music venues, so you can catch a show and stay dry.
If you’re after a quieter night, maybe book a cozy restaurant with indoor seating. Or just plan a staycation at a local hotel. Either way, you’ll stay comfortable and dodge the unpredictability of Texas weather.
Climate Trends and Long-Term Changes
Texas weather in mid-February keeps changing, and it’s not just random luck. Warmer winters, wild temperature swings, and shifting rainfall patterns all play a role in what you’ll get for Valentine’s Day.
These trends shape daily comfort, travel plans, outdoor activities, and even local agriculture.
Warming Patterns in February
Texas has definitely warmed up compared to the 20th century. Average February temps now sit a few degrees higher than they did back in the mid-1900s.
You’ll notice fewer long cold snaps and more mild afternoons than before. In central and southern Texas, highs in the 60s or 70s are way more common now than highs in the 40s.
Northern Texas still gets cold spells, but they don’t last as long. The state even sees more February days reaching 80°F than it used to.
Projections say this warming trend will keep going. By the 2030s, the number of days above 100°F in summer will almost double compared to the early 2000s.
That extreme heat comes later in the year, but it’s part of the same warming pattern that’s making Texas winters milder.
Impact of Climate Change on Texas Winters
Climate change shapes more than just temperature—it changes when and how winter weather hits you. Cold fronts still show up, but now you usually get shorter freezes instead of the long icy stretches that used to be pretty normal.
You can still get hit with extreme events, though. Remember February 2021? Arctic air plunged all the way into Texas, catching a lot of folks off guard. These big freezes stick out even more now, since most winters feel milder.
Rainfall patterns keep shifting, too. Some spots get hammered with heavy rain, while others dry out. For Valentine’s week, you might see anything—one year it’s sunny and warm, the next it’s soggy or suddenly cold. If you’re planning anything outside, it’s best to stay flexible.