This post examines a developing approach to humanitarian relief in drought-prone Somalia: anticipatory action. Drawing on recent work by the International Rescue Committee (IRC) with support from the German Federal Foreign Office, I explain how forecast-triggered cash transfers are changing outcomes for pastoralist families who have suffered repeated climate shocks, especially during Somalia’s worst drought in 40 years (2021–2023).
Why anticipatory action matters for Somali pastoralists
Somalia’s 2021–2023 drought left an estimated 7.9 million people—nearly half the country—facing food insecurity. Traditional humanitarian responses too often arrive after livestock have died, savings are exhausted, and families resort to desperate coping strategies.
In my 30 years working on climate, livelihoods, and humanitarian response, I have seen how timing is as critical as the size of the response. Anticipatory action aims to deliver assistance before crisis thresholds are crossed, preserving assets and dignity rather than merely treating loss.
From forecasts to cash: how the IRC program operates
The IRC’s program uses weather and hydrological forecasts to identify regions at heightened risk of droughts or floods. When predefined triggers are met, teams roll out predictable cash assistance to vulnerable households.
This pre-positioned support is designed to protect livelihoods—especially livestock—and prevent downstream impacts like malnutrition, school dropout, and indebtedness.
Two beneficiary stories illustrate the difference. Pastoralist Mohamud Hassan Adde used monthly payments to secure water, service debts, keep his children in school, and protect remaining livestock.
The predictability of monthly disbursements allowed his household to plan and avoid selling animals at fire-sale prices. Similarly, Fadumo Dahir Ali bought medicines for her children, stocked animal feed, and purchased essential food supplies, thereby averting the worst effects of hunger and malnutrition.
What makes this approach effective
Anticipatory action works because it changes the decision space for families before loss occurs. It recognizes that small, timely investments can prevent cascade failures in livelihoods and health.
The IRC’s program combines three critical elements: accurate forecasting, clearly defined triggers, and rapid, flexible cash transfers that respect household priorities.
Key benefits observed on the ground
Scaling up with an equity lens
For anticipatory action to reach its potential, programs must be scaled and tailored to local contexts. That means investing in better forecasting systems, ensuring inclusive targeting, and strengthening local institutions.
The IRC’s approach explicitly prioritizes women and girls and community-led resource management—measures that promote resilience and social equity.
Practical recommendations from three decades of work
Anticipatory action is a powerful tool to reduce human suffering and protect livelihoods in the face of increasing climate variability.
Backed by donors like the German Federal Foreign Office and implemented by organizations such as the IRC, it offers a pragmatic path forward for Somalia and other vulnerable regions.
Here is the source article for this story: How the IRC is supporting Somali farmers in the face of climate change