With ENSO-neutral conditions currently in place, meteorologists are watching for signs that El Niño may re-emerge as we head into summertime.
This blog distills the FOX Forecast Center’s assessment of how such a shift could shape the upcoming Eastern Pacific hurricane season, explaining the physical mechanisms at work and what forecasters consider when projecting seasonal activity.
While El Niño is a major driver, it is not the sole determinant; localized conditions and other climate variables will continue to modulate individual storms and impacts.
Toward El Niño: what the latest signals suggest
Current observations place the climate system in ENSO-neutral conditions.
Forecasts indicate a potential transition toward El Niño in the coming months.
This potential shift is being closely tracked because even a moderate El Niño can alter regional weather patterns and ocean temperatures.
Forecasters emphasize that the timing and strength of any El Niño development will influence how the season unfolds in the Eastern Pacific, including storm formation rates and intensities.
El Niño and hurricane activity: the climate mechanisms
El Niño refers to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which can inject additional energy into the atmosphere.
This energy, combined with higher ocean heat content, tends to foster more frequent tropical cyclones and can intensify storms.
The interplay between El Niño and atmospheric circulation also tends to reduce or alter vertical wind shear and enhances available moisture in some regions, both of which can affect storm development and organization.
Other factors—such as Atlantic and Pacific-wide wind patterns, regional sea surface temperature anomalies, and local atmospheric variability—also play critical roles in shaping the season’s individual storms.
Historical context and what the 85% figure means for this season
Historical analyses since 1990 show a strong link between at least a moderate El Niño and above-average hurricane activity in the Eastern Pacific.
Specifically, there is roughly an 85% chance of above-average activity when El Niño conditions are present.
This statistic helps forecasters assess risk on a seasonal timescale and informs preparedness planning for coastal and near-coastal communities.
However, historical correlations do not guarantee outcomes for any single season.
The climate system is nuanced, and localized conditions—such as sea surface temperatures in key basins, the distribution of moisture, and regional wind patterns—can lead to variations from year to year.
Forecasters therefore present probabilistic outlooks rather than deterministic predictions and continually refine projections as oceanic and atmospheric indicators evolve.
Forecasting, communication, and preparedness
The FOX Forecast Center is actively monitoring a suite of oceanic and atmospheric indicators to refine seasonal projections.
By tracking sea surface temperatures, ocean heat content, wind shear profiles, and moisture convergence, scientists aim to produce timely, region-specific outlooks that support decision-making for agencies, coastal communities, and the public.
The emphasis remains on continual observation, model refinement, and transparent communication of uncertainties.
Practical guidance for communities and planners
- Monitor official forecasts and updates from national weather services and regional forecast offices. Pay close attention as the season approaches peak activity months.
- Review preparedness plans for hurricanes and tropical cyclones. This includes evacuation routes, shelter readiness, and supply stockpiles.
- Strengthen critical infrastructure with emphasis on flood control, drainage, and power reliability. Recognize the elevated risk under El Niño-influenced seasons.
- Engage in proactive communication with local stakeholders. Ensure timely dissemination of warnings and protective actions when forecasts shift.
Here is the source article for this story: Exclusive analysis: Developing El Niño likely to boost Eastern Pacific hurricane activity in 2026 | Latest Weather Clips