This post summarizes the latest tropical activity across the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins. Tropical Storm Jerry is headed toward the northern Leeward Islands and is expected to become a hurricane, while Pacific storms Raymond and Priscilla threaten heavy rain and flooding along Mexico’s coast and into the U.S. Southwest.
We also cover a new subtropical storm far from land. There is a compounding risk of an unnamed coastal storm and unusually high King Tides along the U.S. Southeast, and the potential influence of La Niña on ongoing patterns.
Current tropical cyclone situation
The tropics are active on multiple fronts, with systems in both the Atlantic and eastern Pacific presenting hazards such as wind, heavy rain, and coastal flooding. Each storm has distinct timing and impacts.
Tropical Storm Jerry: Atlantic threat to the Leeward Islands
Tropical Storm Jerry is moving northwest through the Atlantic with sustained winds near 60 mph. It is forecast to intensify into a hurricane by Saturday.
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Martin, Guadeloupe and nearby islands. Residents should anticipate higher winds, localized flooding, and dangerous seas.
Officials in Guadeloupe have highlighted a specific risk of power outages because the grid is already strained. The arrival of stronger winds and heavy rain could exacerbate outages and complicate recovery.
Coastal communities and mariners should monitor official updates and prepare for rapidly changing conditions.
Eastern Pacific storms: Raymond and Priscilla
On the Pacific side, two systems are tracking along Mexico’s coast with potential impacts for the Baja peninsula and the U.S. Southwest. Their primary hazard is heavy rainfall in many affected areas.
Raymond and Priscilla: rainfall threat to Mexico and the U.S. Southwest
Raymond currently has winds near 45 mph and is forecast to strengthen briefly before weakening as it approaches Baja California Sur later in the weekend. The main risk with Raymond will be torrential rainfall, flash flooding, and mountain runoff where terrain enhances rainfall rates.
Priscilla — once near major hurricane strength — is now weakening but remains a significant rainmaker. Forecasts indicate flash flooding threats could extend into parts of Arizona, California, and Nevada as the remnant moisture moves inland.
Intense, short-duration downpours may lead to dangerous urban and canyon flooding.
Coastal flooding, King Tides, and subtropical Karen
Beyond tropical cyclones, an unnamed coastal storm combined with unusually high King Tides is set to produce significant coastal flooding along the U.S. Southeast. This compound event highlights how tides and coastal storms can amplify impacts even when no major hurricane is present.
High tide impacts from the U.S. Southeast to the Outer Banks
Forecasters warn that Charleston, South Carolina, could see tides near 8.5 feet, among the highest on record for the city. This increases the likelihood of prolonged street and property flooding.
The North Carolina Outer Banks are also vulnerable: ocean overwash may again close portions of Highway 12, disrupting access and emergency response.
Meanwhile, Subtropical Storm Karen has formed in the North Atlantic with winds around 45 mph but is well offshore and currently poses no coastal threat. Its presence is noteworthy for synoptic-scale patterns but not for immediate coastal impacts.
Preparedness checklist
Here is the source article for this story: As Tropical Storm Jerry churns in the Atlantic, Priscilla and a nor’easter threaten US with flooding