This blog post summarizes a forecast for a cold front moving into Central Texas that is likely to trigger severe thunderstorms on Mother’s Day evening. While daytime outdoor plans may remain largely uninterrupted, a line of strong storms could bring large hail and damaging winds to parts of the region, with a very low tornado risk.
Forecasters expect the highest impacts to unfold in the heart of Texas as the front sweeps southeastward. A cooler start to the workweek is expected, followed by a warming trend later in the week.
Forecast Snapshot for Central Texas on Mother’s Day
In the latest forecast, a cold front dipping south into Central Texas creates the favorable environment for organized thunderstorms along a developing squall-line. The day’s activity is expected to be most pronounced in the late afternoon and evening hours.
The line will progress southeast and race across the region. Temperatures will trend cooler after the front passes.
Timeline of Storm Development
Storms are anticipated to begin around 3 p.m. near I-20 between Abilene and Fort Worth. They will then move southeast across the Dallas–Fort Worth area and toward Central Texas.
The line is favored to maintain momentum through the evening. The strongest threats are concentrated between roughly 5 p.m. and midnight in central portions of the state.
By the time the leading edge reaches Waco and Killeen around 7–8 p.m., the hail risk should begin to ease. Damaging gusts and strong winds will persist along the line.
The Brazos Valley is expected to see storms around 10 p.m.. Severe hazards will diminish to heavy rain and possible gusty winds as the system exits.
Forecasters emphasize a squall-line structure over discrete supercells. This is driven by a robust storm outflow that keeps wind speeds pressing southeastward.
The overall tornado risk is assessed as very low due to weak upper-level winds and minimal wind shear. Residents should remain vigilant for rapidly changing conditions within the line.
Hazards and Regional Impacts
Key threats vary by location as the line progresses.
Below are the primary hazards likely to accompany the storm system and the areas most likely to feel them:
- Large hail—the greatest hail threat will be near the I-20 corridor and northwest of Waco, Temple, and Killeen. Hail could impact vehicles, roofs, and outdoor items.
- Damaging straight-line winds—as the squall line moves, gusts capable of downing branches, power lines, and smaller trees will accompany the line’s passage. This is especially true in open and exposed areas along and ahead of the line.
- Very low tornado risk—the environment shows limited wind shear, reducing the potential for tornado development. A brief, weak spin-up cannot be entirely ruled out in isolated pockets.
- Heavy rain and localized flooding—slower-moving segments or heavy downpours could lead to localized flooding. The Brazos Valley may see rain and gusty winds around late evening into the night.
In the wake of the front, expect a cooldown.
Monday’s highs are forecast to settle in the upper 70s, a noticeable drop from Sunday’s warmth.
The broader pattern then shifts toward a warming trend as conditions rebound.
Highs will climb into the upper 80s to near 90 later in the week, approaching but typically staying near Waco’s seasonal mid-80s average.
Takeaway for readers in Central Texas: monitor local forecasts on Mother’s Day and stay alert for changing storm conditions as the line approaches.
Seek shelter indoors away from windows if a siren or warning is issued.
While the tornado threat is low, the combination of large hail and damaging winds can cause damage and injuries, so a cautious plan for outdoor activities and travel is prudent.
Here is the source article for this story: Severe thunderstorm chance for Mother’s Day Evening