This blog post summarizes the latest severe weather outlook for the Southern Plains through Mother’s Day weekend, based on forecasts from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center.
It explains where risks are greatest, what hazards to watch for, and how the patterns shaping this weekend’s storms fit into the longer-term tornado season in May.
Severe weather outlook for the Southern Plains this weekend
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 2 risk (moderate) covering much of central and eastern Oklahoma, portions of North Texas, and southern Kansas.
A broader Level 1 risk stretches into central Missouri, the Dallas area, and the Gulf Coast east of Houston.
While May often brings the strongest tornado threats, forecasters expect the main hazards this weekend to be large hail and damaging wind gusts, with a low chance of weak tornadoes in the highest-risk zones.
Another Level 1 area just south and east of San Antonio could see large hail if storms develop there.
Saturday’s threat is smaller, mainly affecting extreme northeast Texas and southwest Oklahoma.
Mother’s Day shifts the Level 2 risk toward Dallas and parts of Central Texas.
- Large hail is a primary concern, capable of causing property damage and injuries.
- Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph could down trees and power lines, and break unsecured outdoor items.
- Isolated tornadoes remain possible in the highest-risk zones, though confidence in a widespread tornado outbreak is lower.
Timing and geography: who’s most at risk over the weekend
On Friday night into Saturday, the strongest activity should focus across central and eastern Oklahoma, extending into parts of North Texas and southern Kansas.
The Dallas area and nearby Central Texas could see elevated activity on Mother’s Day as the risk shifts northeast.
Forecasters emphasize that Saturday will be the smaller-day threat, with activity tapering as storms move east and away from the immediate plains region.
Those living in or traveling through Dallas and Central Texas should monitor updates through Friday and Saturday, especially if you have outdoor plans.
Even in lower-risk areas, strong storms can produce sudden wind gusts and hail, so having a plan to seek shelter is wise.
Seasonal context and the longer-range outlook
May is historically the peak month for tornadoes in what’s commonly called Tornado Alley, a corridor stretching from Nebraska through Kansas and Oklahoma into North Texas.
The current forecast aligns with that pattern, as forecasters expect the jet stream to remain active and allow warm, moist Gulf air to surge across the Plains.
This combination often leads to episodic severe weather outbreaks during late spring.
Long-range outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center hint at above-average rainfall for the Southwest and central Plains in the coming weeks.
Forecasters caution that long-range forecasts can shift as atmospheric patterns evolve.
- Jet stream dynamics are a key driver, supporting storm development when they dip across the Plains.
- Gulf moisture returning northward increases instability, a primary fuel for severe storms.
- Forecast confidence tends to be lower farther out, so weekend predictions should be updated as new data arrive.
Here is the source article for this story: Severe storms return to Plains through Mother’s Day with Tornado Alley expected to reignite later in May