This forecast write-up summarizes a multi-day weather pattern across parts of Oklahoma and Kansas. It highlights fire weather concerns, scattered storm chances, potential severe weather, and a cooling trend into Easter weekend.
Our team of scientists with decades of experience breaks down what you can expect day by day. This helps you plan activities and stay safe.
Today’s Weather and Fire Weather Outlook
Today, a few isolated pop-up showers are possible, but most areas will stay dry. Expect highs in the mid-80s and strong south winds gusting 30–35 mph.
Elevated fire danger remains a concern, with potential fire spread rates near 150 feet per minute in dry, windy conditions. Tonight, scattered storms are expected to develop, starting in western Oklahoma and moving eastward, while southeastern Kansas could see storms form along a stalled front.
While many locations may miss rain in this initial round, a few storms could become strong to severe with damaging winds and hail. Weather planning should emphasize fire safety and staying alert for changing storm development.
Storm Timing and Primary Hazards
Key hazards to monitor include gusty winds, hail potential, and the possibility of quick rainfall leading to localized flooding in any downpours. A subset of storms could deliver damaging winds or large hail, especially where storms cluster along the advancing boundary.
A few communities may not see rain immediately. Any activity that produces lightning warrants caution outdoors.
Midweek Outlook: Mild Start, Increasing Storm Potential
Wednesday will bring milder temperatures in the 60s with breezy south winds and isolated storm chances as the stalled front retreats north. Temperatures rise into the 80s, fueling additional thunderstorm development later in the day.
More scattered storms are expected Wednesday afternoon across western Oklahoma and then moving eastward. There is a higher risk of strong to severe storms in eastern Oklahoma Wednesday night as clusters or a line form along the lingering boundary.
Damaging winds, hail, and heavy rainfall are possible. While the tornado risk remains low, rotating storm updrafts could occur in some cells, so stay informed on warnings and be ready to take shelter if conditions deteriorate.
Wednesday Night and Eastern Oklahoma Focus
For eastern portions of the state, expect a window of enhanced storm activity Wednesday night. The combination of heat, moisture, and a sturdy atmospheric lift will favor organized storm modes, including clusters or squall lines.
This pattern supports potentially strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall. Brief disruptions to travel and outdoor plans are possible.
Late Week to Weekend: Instability, Front, and Cooling
Thursday into Friday features another wave of instability, bringing isolated to widely scattered storms. Heights will trend cooler later in the day, with highs in the 70s on Thursday and a rebound into the lower 80s on Friday, accompanied by gusty south winds.
This setup keeps the threat of storms alive, especially in western areas where moisture pools and lift remains favorable. A more organized line of strong to severe storms is likely Friday night into Saturday as a stronger cold front arrives.
This activity could produce additional beneficial rainfall and a notable cooldown for the weekend, with temperatures dropping into the mid-60s by Saturday. If this line holds together, expect a swift transition from warmth to much cooler air and potentially widespread rain in some regions.
Late-Week Severe Weather and Rain Potential
Forecast confidence increases for a late-night to Saturday morning outbreak of strong storms along the approaching front. The primary threats include damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall that could cause localized flooding.
Even if the line remains somewhat scattered, the combination of instability and a robust cold front heightens the risk of impactful weather into the early weekend.
Easter Weekend Outlook: Cooler and Brisk, Then Slow Improvement
Easter Sunday looks cooler, with morning lows in the low 40s. Daytime highs will reach the mid-60s.
A brisk north wind on Saturday should ease to a lighter breeze by Sunday. This signals a transition toward more tranquil conditions as the pattern shifts away from the active storm days.
The coming days feature a mix of dry spells and isolated to scattered storms. There is a chance for stronger storm events primarily from Wednesday night into Saturday.
For outdoor plans, monitor local forecasts for exact timing. Prepare for changing conditions, especially where storms may organize into lines capable of strong winds and heavy rainfall.
Here is the source article for this story: Warm, windy start to week in Tulsa followed by storm chances and cooler Easter weekend