Central Texas is preparing for a significant weekend of severe weather, with Friday and Saturday declared First Alert Weather Days due to an increased risk of damaging storms. An unusual combination of heat and humidity has created the perfect storm conditions, increasing the likelihood of powerful weather events like hail, high winds, and even tornadoes.
This weekend’s weather threats are primarily driven by an uptick in Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), a measure of the atmosphere’s ability to produce strong convection. Convection involves warm air rising rapidly, cooling, and condensing into storm clouds.
Elevated CAPE values in the region are linked to persistent unseasonable heat and significant humidity levels. These atmospheric conditions fuel intense storms, which forecasters warn could lead to very large hail, powerful wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes.
Why Hailstorms Are a Major Concern
Central Texas residents should particularly be alert for hailstorms, as some hailstones produced could rival the size of baseballs. When updrafts in storm clouds are strong enough, they keep ice particles suspended high in the atmosphere, where they grow larger before falling to the ground.
These oversized hailstones pose serious risks, including property damage and personal injury if precautions aren’t taken.
Friday’s Forecast: Isolated Severe Storm Development
On Friday, isolated storms are expected to emerge after 4 PM, primarily near the dry line. The dry line represents a boundary where moist, humid air clashes with hot, dry air—a key ingredient for severe storm formation.
Although these storms will initially remain isolated, they are anticipated to cluster and gradually lose strength after sunset. However, severe weather could persist through midnight in some areas before rainfall begins tapering off around 3 AM.
Anticipated Severe Weather Risks Friday Evening
- Large hail: Baseball-sized hailstones may form, especially early in the storm lifecycle.
- Damaging wind gusts: Strong winds could bring down trees and power lines.
- Tornado potential: While few in number, some storms could spin up tornadoes.
Saturday’s Widespread Severe Weather: Flash Flooding Becomes a Threat
Saturday’s weather outlook predicts more widespread storm activity, with severe weather intensifying across Central Texas. By around 4 PM, isolated storms are expected to develop before transitioning into larger clusters.
The most alarming aspect of Saturday’s forecast involves flash flooding. Heavy rainfall rates—estimated at 2.5 to 3 inches per hour—could inundate areas, particularly west of Interstate 35.
Low-lying regions and poorly drained areas face the highest risk for localized flooding.
Key Saturday Weather Risks
- Hail and damaging winds: Large hailstones and high-speed wind gusts remain probable.
- Tornadoes: Intense storms carry the same tornado potential as Friday.
- Flash flooding: Saturated soil combined with heavy downpours may lead to hazardous flooding conditions.
Not all areas will experience rain on Saturday, but those caught in the heaviest storms could see totals exceeding two inches before weather activity diminishes early Sunday morning.
How to Stay Safe During First Alert Weather Days
Preparing now will help you weather the storms with minimal risk. Here are some safety measures to consider over the weekend:
- Secure outdoor items: Strong winds and hail can turn unsecured items into dangerous projectiles.
- Stay indoors during storms: Seek shelter in a sturdy building, away from windows, to avoid injury from hail or flying debris.
- Monitor weather updates: Keep an eye on reliable sources like NOAA weather alerts or local stations for real-time updates.
- Prepare for flash flooding: If you’re in a flood-prone area, have an emergency kit ready and know evacuation routes.
Conclusion: Preparedness Is Key
Central Texas faces a dynamic and potentially dangerous weather situation this weekend.
Between Friday’s isolated storms and Saturday’s more widespread activity, the risk for hail, high winds, tornadoes, and flash flooding remains high.
Here is the source article for this story: First Alert Weather Days: Traditional Spring severe storms are possible Friday, likely on Saturday