This blog post examines the latest developments in Tropical Storm Melissa as of October 26, 2025. It summarizes forecast trends, potential impacts for Jamaica and Haiti, and practical preparedness steps.
Drawing on decades of experience in tropical meteorology, I explain why forecasters expect Melissa to strengthen rapidly. I also discuss what the projected track implies for life‑threatening hazards and how communities should respond in the near term.
Current status and short‑term forecast
On the morning of October 26, 2025, Melissa has held its strength while moving west‑northwest. Models now indicate the storm is likely to rapidly intensify over the coming weekend as environmental conditions become more favorable.
Those favorable conditions include warm sea surface temperatures and abundant atmospheric moisture. Periods of reduced vertical wind shear are also present — a combination that often precedes quick strengthening in Atlantic tropical cyclones.
Forecasters note that Melissa is expected to execute a sharp turn toward the northeast as it approaches Jamaica.
Track expectations and intensity outlook
Current model guidance suggests Melissa could move near or directly over Jamaica. The storm may reach major hurricane strength before or during that passage.
Authorities have already issued hurricane warnings for Jamaica in anticipation of significant impacts. The storm’s projected slow motion near the region raises the risk of very heavy, prolonged rainfall, which compounds the hazard from hurricane‑force winds.
When a cyclone stalls or moves slowly, rainfall accumulations can become extreme. This increases the potential for widespread flash flooding and catastrophic landslides, particularly over steep, deforested terrain.
Risks for Jamaica and Haiti
Both Jamaica and Haiti are facing serious threats from Melissa’s approach, but the nature of those threats differs by location. Jamaica confronts the combined risk of intense winds, storm surge, and extended heavy rain.
Haiti is particularly vulnerable to flooding and slope failures from the outer bands. In Haiti, forecasters are specifically warning of catastrophic flash flooding and landslides for the Tiburon Peninsula in the south.
Given Haiti’s steep topography and areas of weakened soil stability, torrential rainfall from Melissa’s bands could have devastating humanitarian consequences.
Expected hazards and timelines
The primary hazards to monitor are:
Practical guidance and immediate actions
Officials in both countries are urging communities to prepare immediately. As an experienced meteorologist, I recommend prioritizing life‑safety actions and heeding official evacuation orders where issued.
Key preparedness steps include gathering emergency supplies and securing property. Having a clear communication and evacuation plan is also essential.
What residents should do now
Melissa’s current trajectory and intensification potential make this a very dangerous situation for Jamaica and southern Haiti.
Here is the source article for this story: Melissa Still Below Hurricane Strength, Continuing Northwest