This post examines recent warnings urging Suffolk and Nassau County officials to prepare for increasingly unpredictable extreme weather and flooding on Long Island. Drawing on comments from Dr. Jase Bernhardt of Hofstra University and reporting in Newsday, I explain why floods are becoming harder to forecast precisely. I also discuss how outdated drainage systems amplify risk, and what practical steps local leaders and residents can take to reduce harm.
Why Long Island flooding is becoming more unpredictable
Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of storm events across the Northeast. Long Island’s low-lying areas are especially vulnerable.
Many municipalities still rely on outdated drainage systems, which cannot cope with sudden deluges or the higher rainfall rates we now observe. These twin trends—stronger storms and stressed infrastructure—create a situation in which flooding is not only more likely, but also more localized and harder to predict far in advance.
Residents and emergency managers are being placed in the difficult position of needing to make quick decisions with incomplete information.
The forecasting gap: watches versus hyper-local alerts
As Dr. Jase Bernhardt noted, meteorologists can often issue a flood watch 12 to 24 hours before a storm arrives. This gives broad advance notice to communities.
However, the hyper-localized alerts that homeowners and local planners want—such as knowing which specific street or neighborhood will flood—tend to arrive much closer to the actual event. That delay creates frustration: the public expects actionable, site-specific warnings, while emergency planners need lead time to mobilize resources.
The reality is that pinpointing the exact town or county that will experience the worst impacts is frequently only possible moments before flooding begins.
Implications for emergency planning and infrastructure investment
Local supervisors and emergency managers must design response strategies that account for sudden, localized impacts rather than relying solely on broad, advance watches. This requires a combination of resilient infrastructure, smarter monitoring, and flexible operational plans.
Investments in stormwater systems, real-time sensors, and improved communications will reduce response times and help align public expectations with the limits of current forecasting. Policies that prioritize both immediate mitigation and long-term adaptation to rising precipitation trends are also important.
Practical steps for local officials and communities
Based on three decades in the field, I recommend several high-impact actions that Suffolk and Nassau counties can pursue now:
Moving from uncertain forecasts to effective action
We cannot make every flood perfectly predictable. However, we can make our communities far more resilient to surprise events.
That requires honest communication about forecasting limits. Targeted investments in drainage and monitoring are also essential.
Nimble emergency plans should anticipate localized impacts.
Officials, planners, and residents on Long Island must work together now to translate the growing body of climate science—including the observations from experts like Dr. Bernhardt—into practical steps that save property and lives.
Preparedness is not just about accurate forecasts. It is about building systems that perform when those forecasts fall short.
Here is the source article for this story: Severe Weather Events Mean Officials Must Be Ready for the Unexpected