This post breaks down NOAA’s November outlook for Alabama, summarizing temperature and rainfall forecasts, ongoing drought conditions, short-range shifts in weather, tornado risk, and key calendar dates that affect daily life — from the end of daylight saving time to the close of hurricane season.
As a meteorologist with three decades of experience, I’ll translate the technical projections into practical guidance for residents, planners, and decision-makers.
November outlook: temperatures and precipitation
The Climate Prediction Center and local monitoring agencies are signaling a mixed picture for Alabama in November: pockets of above-average warmth are likely, but precipitation is generally expected to be scarce.
These patterns matter for agriculture, water resources, and fall outdoor plans.
Temperature forecast
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center assigns a 33–40% chance of above-average temperatures for southwest Alabama this month.
For the remainder of the state, the forecast indicates equal chances of being warmer or cooler than normal over the next 30 days — in other words, no strong signal either way.
Looking at the short-term window from Nov. 6–10, temperatures are expected to rise across the state, with western counties seeing an even stronger signal: roughly a 50–60% chance of above-average warmth.
That briefly elevated warmth can influence energy demand, crop stress, and pollen levels.
Rainfall, drought trends, and near-term expectations
Rainfall prospects are less encouraging than temperatures: most of Alabama is forecast to receive below-average precipitation through November.
That has direct implications for drought persistence and water management across the state.
Rainfall and drought conditions
Most of Alabama is expected to see below-normal rainfall this month, with only a small portion of north Alabama showing equal chances for above- or below-average precipitation.
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor continues to show drought conditions across much of the state, meaning reservoirs, soils, and groundwater are under stress.
During the Nov. 6–10 period, rainfall is generally forecast to be near normal, though parts of north Alabama could receive slightly higher totals.
Even so, a brief period of normal rainfall will not erase cumulative deficits.
Practical implications for agriculture and water managers
Farmers, landscapers, and municipal water managers should factor the likely below-average rainfall into end-of-season irrigation decisions and reservoir planning.
Seedbed and planting windows for winter crops will be sensitive to soil moisture, and longer-term drought can increase wildfire risk in dry landscapes.
Severe weather risk and important calendar dates
Alabama’s weather can change quickly in November; while the immediate outlook is quiet, historical patterns and seasonal markers require attention.
I’ll highlight tornado risk and the key dates you should keep on your calendar.
Tornado climatology and short-term outlook
No severe weather is forecast for at least the first week of November, but it’s important to remember that November is historically Alabama’s third most active month for tornadoes.
That climatological fact underlines the need for preparedness: have a plan, know your safe shelter, and monitor watches and warnings during frontal passages.
Key dates to note
Several non-weather dates also influence routines and planning this month:
To prepare this month: conserve water where drought persists. Review severe-weather plans given November’s tornado history.
Adjust schedules for the time change. Monitor local forecasts from NOAA and the National Weather Service.
Use local resources like the Climate Prediction Center and U.S. Drought Monitor for the latest updates.
Here is the source article for this story: Will November bring rain or severe weather to Alabama?