This blog post summarizes the latest multi-day severe weather forecast from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. It details a potential outbreak of tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding across the Southern Plains into the Southeast.
It highlights risk levels, timing, and regional targets from Friday through Monday. Guidance is provided on how the forecast is evolving and how residents should stay prepared.
Forecast Snapshot: Regions at Risk and Primary Threats
The Weather Prediction Center and SPC emphasize a developing weather system that could impact more than 55 million people. Friday through Monday will feature a mix of storm modes, from isolated supercells to potentially organized lines capable of producing damaging winds and tornadoes.
Heavy rain compounds the hazard, raising flash flood concerns in several states. Forecasters highlight a Level 2 of 5 risk for East Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, with large hail and damaging gusts as the main concerns.
Isolated tornadoes remain possible, especially in zones where storms organize or intensify. Across Texas, a separate area along a dryline in central and eastern portions could see very large hail.
Friday: Initiation, Timing, and Early Impacts
Expect storms to fire first across eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas Friday afternoon. These storms will then push east into the Mississippi Valley by Friday evening.
Some storms may organize into damaging wind-producing lines, posing a threat to communities along and east of their path. Heavy rainfall will accompany the storms, creating an early flash-flood risk in Arkansas and neighboring states.
Most areas will see 1–2 inches of rain, with pockets of higher totals possible.
Key points for Friday include:
Saturday: Escalation to Level 3 in Parts of the Plains
As a new low-pressure system approaches the Southern Plains, models indicate a Level 3 of 5 risk for portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Supercells may form and potentially evolve into a damaging line capable of widespread wind damage.
The threat of intense rainfall continues, with the potential for flash flooding as storms train or slow over heavy rain bands.
Important considerations for Saturday:
Sunday into Monday: Uncertainty, Shifting Loci, and the Eastward Push
Sunday’s forecast is more uncertain, with models suggesting another developing system and a sharp dryline that could trigger a Level 3 risk from central Oklahoma into southern Kansas. A strong cap could delay storms until late in the day.
If storms remain limited in the Plains, the greater moisture and instability may shift the most intense threat eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley. By Monday, the system is expected to race northeast, bringing a warm front and a robust low-level jet.
This could limit northern severe development while fueling severe storms in the moisture-rich Southern Plains and Southeast.
Takeaways for Sunday and Monday include:
Safety, Preparedness, and What Residents Should Do
With a multi-day severe weather episode forecast, preparedness is essential.
Stay connected to local alerts, identify safe shelter locations in advance, and practice a family emergency plan.
Lightning, flash floods, and wind-driven hazards can arise quickly, even in areas with initially lower risk.
Practical steps to reduce risk include:
This is a dynamic event with shifting risk by day and location.
Continuous situational awareness is essential for communities across the Plains, Southeast, and Mississippi Valley.
Stay safe, stay informed, and follow official guidance as the situation evolves.
Here is the source article for this story: Severe weather extends into the weekend as millions brace for ‘marathon’ threat