This post explains Indonesia’s national meteorological agency (BMKG) warning of another week of extreme weather after Bali’s worst floods in a decade.
I break down the forecasted timeline, the atmospheric drivers behind the stormy pattern, the human and infrastructure impacts already seen in Bali, and practical preparedness steps residents and local authorities should take in the coming days.
BMKG’s forecast: an elevated risk of floods, landslides, and high waves
Indonesia faces a period of increased hydrometeorological risk between September 12–18, with heavy rainfall and strong winds expected across many provinces.
BMKG Director Dwikorita Karnawati has pointed to multiple interacting climate drivers that are amplifying instability in the region’s weather patterns.
These conditions elevate the likelihood of flash floods, landslides in upland and deforested areas, coastal inundation from high waves, and localized infrastructure failures.
This is especially a concern where drainage and waterways are compromised.
When and where the impacts are most likely
BMKG’s operational forecast divides the threat window into two phases.
From September 12–14, the agency expects heavy rain in Riau, Bangka Belitung, Lampung, Banten, Jakarta, Java provinces, parts of Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua.
The second phase, September 15–18, shifts the focus to Central and East Java, West and South Sulawesi, and several Papuan provinces.
Why the atmosphere is so active: the drivers behind the rain
The current episode is not the result of a single system but of several overlapping phenomena.
BMKG cited the Madden–Julian Oscillation, equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves, and a tropical cyclone seed west of Bengkulu as key contributors.
When these drivers align, they enhance convective activity—producing heavier, more persistent rainfall than typical monsoonal showers.
This combination is especially effective at producing widespread, intense precipitation when local topography and land-use change are factored in.
Lessons from Bali’s devastating floods
The warning follows catastrophic flooding in Bali on September 9–10 that left 18 people dead, two missing, and at least 185 residents displaced.
Denpasar recorded the highest concentration of flood points (81), while Gianyar, Badung, Tabanan, Karangasem, Jembrana, and Klungkung experienced severe inundation.
Rainfall records were extreme: Jembrana received 385.5 mm in one day—more than double the 150 mm threshold commonly considered an extreme daily total in the region.
BMKG noted that poor drainage, clogged waterways, sedimentation, and land-use changes significantly worsened the disaster despite multiple early warnings.
Practical steps: what residents and local authorities should do now
Preparation and timely action can substantially reduce harm during high-impact weather events.
BMKG has urged the public to stay alert and follow updates; authorities must ensure warnings translate into rapid, targeted protective actions on the ground.
Key immediate measures include:
Longer-term resilience
Beyond immediate steps, the Bali floods underscore the need for improved watershed management and restoration of river corridors.
Stricter land-use planning is necessary, along with investment in urban drainage and early-warning systems.
These measures reduce vulnerability before the next extreme event.
Here is the source article for this story: Indonesia Braces for Another Week of Extreme Weather After Bali’s Worst Floods in a Decade