Fossil fuels are reshaping the cost and stability of the U.S. food supply, quietly linking the price at the pump to the price at the grocery checkout.
Rising energy costs and climate change—both driven by the continued use of coal, oil, and natural gas—are pushing food prices higher and destabilizing agricultural production.
How Fossil Fuels Drive Up U.S. Food Prices
Behind every item on a supermarket shelf lies a chain of energy-intensive steps: planting, fertilizing, irrigating, harvesting, processing, chilling, packaging, and transporting.
In an advanced economy like the United States, these stages are tightly bound to fossil fuels, making our food system highly sensitive to swings in oil and gas markets.
Energy Costs Embedded in Every Bite
Energy costs can account for up to half of variable food production costs in high-income countries.
When fuel and electricity prices spike, the effects are quickly felt on grocery receipts.
Over the past five years, Americans’ grocery bills have risen nearly 30 percent, and a significant share of that increase is tied to energy-related pressures.
Fossil fuels influence food prices through multiple channels:
Volatility in Oil and Gas Ripples Through the Food System
Because so many steps in food production depend on fossil fuels, price swings in oil and natural gas propagate throughout the food system.
When energy prices rise, producers face higher operating costs, processors pay more for electricity, and trucking companies pass on higher fuel costs.
Ultimately, those increases are reflected in supermarket prices for everything from bread to beef.
This dependence leaves the U.S. food system vulnerable to geopolitical shocks, supply disruptions, and speculative energy markets—factors that have little to do with farming itself but strongly affect what consumers pay.
The Fertilizer Factor: Natural Gas and Food Price Spikes
Among all fossil fuel inputs, natural gas–based fertilizers are one of the most critical links between energy markets and food prices.
Modern agriculture has become deeply reliant on synthetic nitrogen to boost yields, especially in large-scale commodity crops.
Natural Gas–Based Nitrogen Fertilizers
The production of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer relies heavily on natural gas as both an energy source and chemical feedstock.
Over recent decades, the use of these fertilizers has surged dramatically, enabling high yields but tying crop prices closely to natural gas markets.
As a result, fertilizer prices are highly volatile and closely correlated with food price spikes.
When natural gas prices climb, fertilizer costs follow; farmers must either absorb the higher costs, reduce applications and risk lower yields, or pass costs downstream.
Each of these pathways can contribute to higher prices at the checkout line.
Climate Change and the Rising Cost of Food
Fossil fuels are not only raising direct production costs—they are also altering the climate in ways that damage agricultural output.
These climate-driven impacts are increasingly visible in U.S. food price data.
Extreme Weather as a Pricing Force
Over the past 50 years, climate change has raised U.S. food prices by an estimated 6.7 percent, and this impact is accelerating.
Heat waves, droughts, floods, and storms are becoming more intense and more frequent, undermining the reliability of harvests and livestock production.
Recent extreme events have affected key staples:
Global Weather Shocks and Imported Foods
These are not just domestic problems.
Globally, extreme weather has become the main disruptor of food prices, affecting crop yields and export flows worldwide.
For the United States, this translates into higher prices for imported foods that many households buy regularly.
Climate impacts in other countries are driving up the costs of goods such as:
These imported shocks feed directly into U.S. grocery inflation, amplifying the effect of domestic climate impacts and fossil fuel costs.
Food Insecurity and Who Is Hit Hardest
Rising food prices and climate disruptions do not affect all households equally.
The burdens fall most heavily on those with the least capacity to adapt.
Growing Vulnerability in U.S. Households
Today, 18 million U.S. households experience food insecurity, meaning they struggle to access enough nutritious food for an active, healthy life.
For low-income and marginalized communities, higher grocery prices can force impossible trade-offs among food, energy, housing, and healthcare.
Climate and fossil fuel–driven price shocks thus act as a multiplier of existing social inequities, deepening health disparities and undermining economic resilience in vulnerable communities.
Reducing Risk and Building Resilience
The report highlights four priority strategies:
Here is the source article for this story: How Fossil Fuels and Global Extreme Weather Increase Americans’ Food Prices