This blog post summarizes new research showing that climate change markedly worsened the recent wildfires across Spain and Portugal.
It explains the study’s main findings — how global warming increased the likelihood of the extreme weather that preceded the fires, how fire behavior was altered, and what these results mean for future wildfire risk on the Iberian Peninsula and similar regions worldwide.
Key findings from the attribution study
The analysis, led by the World Weather Attribution group at Imperial College London, used detailed meteorological data to separate human-driven warming influences from natural variability.
The results show a clear and measurable role for global warming in both the extreme heat that preceded the blazes and in the fires’ intensity.
Below are the principal outcomes that the research highlighted:
How the researchers reached these conclusions
The group applied an approach known as event attribution, which compares observed weather with simulations of a world without human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.
By running multiple weather and climate model simulations, researchers can estimate how much climate change shifted probabilities and magnitudes of extreme events.
In this case, the team relied on available observational records and ensemble model experiments to quantify changes in heat and fire-related conditions.
Event attribution does not claim that climate change “caused” every single fire,” but rather quantifies how much the underlying odds and conditions were altered by human-induced warming.
The numbers reported — a 40-fold increase in likelihood and a 30% jump in fire intensity — are therefore about the change in risk and behavior attributable to warming.
Why these results matter for the Iberian Peninsula
The Iberian Peninsula is already climatologically predisposed to summer heat and drought, making vegetation drier and landscapes more flammable.
When heat waves intensify and become more frequent due to global warming, the window for large, fast-moving fires expands.
Implications for risk management and policy
From a practical standpoint, the findings underscore the urgent need to adjust both mitigation and adaptation strategies. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains the long-term path to lowering such amplified risks.
Spain, Portugal, and neighboring regions must strengthen early warning systems, forest management, and emergency response to cope with fires that are now more intense and likely.
Key actions that can reduce future losses include:
Here is the source article for this story: Spain and Portugal Fires Were More Intense Because of Climate Change