Planning for St. Patrick’s Day in North Dakota? You’ll want to be ready for a season that’s stuck somewhere between winter’s grip and spring’s slow start.
Expect average high temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s Fahrenheit. Lows often dip into the 20s. Snow on the ground is still a regular sight. The days are growing longer, and, honestly, the sun feels a bit stronger than it did back in January.
You might bundle up in a winter coat for a morning parade, then find yourself enjoying a milder afternoon that teases the idea of spring. Light snow or rain can happen, and March winds usually add a sharp edge to the air.
This in-between weather gives St. Patrick’s Day in North Dakota its own vibe. You get to experience winter’s last gasp while spotting the first hints of warmer days. It’s a preview of the changes that roll in later in March and April.
Typical Weather Conditions on St. Patrick’s Day
Mid-March in North Dakota usually feels a lot more like winter than spring. Temperatures often stay below freezing. Snow cover is pretty common, and the wind doesn’t really let up.
Precipitation can show up as snow or light rain depending on the year. Strong winds and cloudy skies usually shape the mood of the day.
Average Temperatures
On St. Patrick’s Day, you’ll typically see average highs in the mid-30s°F and average lows in the teens°F. Some years, daytime highs sneak into the 40s, but it’s just as likely to stay stuck in the 20s.
Cold snaps can still hit. Historical records show lows dropping below zero, especially up north. Warm spells do happen, but they’re rare. Occasionally, southern areas get highs near 50°F.
Snow on the ground is the norm. Many towns report several inches of snowpack by mid-March, which means it stays chilly and the spring thaw takes its sweet time.
If you’re planning to be outside, dress for winter. Spring isn’t quite here yet.
Precipitation Trends
March 17 might not bring precipitation, but you should be ready for it. On average, 0.05″ to 0.15″ of precipitation falls, usually as light snow.
Rain happens sometimes, mostly in the southern Red River Valley when it gets warm enough.
Snowfall totals jump around a lot. Some years, you’ll just get flurries. Other times, you’ll see 2–4 inches. Big snowstorms don’t happen often in mid-March, but they’re not impossible.
Snow depth matters, too. Many places still have 4–12 inches of snowpack, especially out in the country. When the temperature rises during the day, you get slushy roads and icy sidewalks.
Wind and Cloud Cover
Wind really stands out on St. Patrick’s Day in North Dakota. Average speeds run from 15 to 25 mph, and storms can bring even stronger gusts.
Those winds make it feel a lot colder, especially if you’re out in the open.
Clouds usually hang around. You’ll see mostly cloudy to overcast skies most years, which keeps things chilly. Clear skies do pop up, but then the nights get even colder thanks to radiational cooling.
When you combine clouds and wind, the day feels brisk and unsettled. If you have to travel, watch out for blowing snow. Even light snow can cut visibility fast.
Historical Weather Extremes and Notable Events
St. Patrick’s Day weather in North Dakota has run the gamut from crippling blizzards to record warmth. These wild swings have messed with travel, farming, and even holiday plans.
Major Blizzards and Snowstorms
Some of the roughest St. Patrick’s Days in North Dakota’s history featured heavy snow and fierce winds. March storms like to show up with Arctic air, causing whiteouts across the prairies.
Back in mid-March 1966, a blizzard dumped more than 20 inches of snow on much of the state. Winds over 50 mph piled up drifts that buried cars and blocked rural roads for days.
Snow totals on St. Patrick’s Day itself have been all over the map. Some years, just a trace fell, and in others, more than half a foot landed in a single day. Even moderate snow with gusty winds can shut down highways and delay flights at airports like Fargo and Bismarck.
These storms leave their mark. Farmers lose livestock, and rural folks sometimes get cut off from supplies. If you’re traveling in mid-March, always prepare for sudden snow and poor visibility.
Record Highs and Lows
Temperature extremes in North Dakota around March 17 really show off the state’s wild seasonal swings. Average highs hang out in the upper 30s to low 40s °F, but records go way beyond that.
During the mid-March warm spell of 2012, highs shot up into the 70s °F in the southern counties. That kind of warmth can melt snow fast and leave behind a muddy mess.
On the flip side, Arctic blasts have sent lows below -20 °F. In 1941, many cities across the Upper Midwest, including North Dakota, saw some of their coldest St. Patrick’s Days on record. Those bitter mornings usually follow clear nights with deep snow cover.
With such a big gap between record highs and lows, you really need to pack both winter gear and lighter layers if you’re heading outdoors.
Flooding and Thaw Events
Flooding can become a real problem around St. Patrick’s Day in North Dakota. When a warm-up hits after heavy snow, rivers like the Red and James rise fast.
Ice jams make things worse by blocking water and causing it to back up into fields and neighborhoods.
In 1997, a major spring flood hit after March warming set the stage for record river crests. While that wasn’t just a St. Patrick’s Day issue, thaws in mid-March play a huge role in flood risk.
Even smaller thaws can cause headaches. Meltwater pools on frozen ground, turning city streets into ice rinks in places like Grand Forks and Minot. Out in the country, gravel roads can get pretty rough when the frost starts to leave the soil.
If you’re visiting, keep an eye on river forecasts. Local communities often spend St. Patrick’s Day getting ready for spring flooding as much as for parades.
Atmospheric Influences in March
March weather in North Dakota flips fast because different air masses keep colliding. Cold Arctic air and milder Pacific or Gulf air meet up, creating sharp contrasts that drive both calm and stormy stretches.
High Pressure Systems
High pressure tends to settle over the northern Plains in March. When it does, you’ll see clear skies, light winds, and colder nights.
Arctic air takes over under these systems, which can keep daytime highs in the 30s or even lower.
High pressure also cuts down on cloud cover. That lets the sun warm things up a bit during the day, but nights cool off quickly. Big swings from day to night are pretty normal, especially when snow is still on the ground.
These systems can slow down or block storms, so you might get a few dry days in a row. For travelers, that usually means better roads, though you can still hit icy patches in the morning.
In general, high pressure brings stable weather. Expect fewer storms, cooler temps, and more sunshine than when low pressure dominates.
Low Pressure and Storm Tracks
Low pressure systems shake things up. They often track across the central Plains or into southern Canada, dragging in moisture and warmer air.
When that happens, North Dakota can see snow, freezing rain, or even some early spring showers.
March storm tracks are unpredictable. Some storms zip by with just a dusting of snow. Others bring heavier precipitation and gusty winds. If enough cold air is around, stronger lows can create blizzard conditions.
Low pressure also brings more clouds and keeps nights warmer. That can slow down snowmelt but increase flooding risk if several storms hit close together.
If you’re planning to travel or be outside, remember that March storms can roll in fast. Conditions might go from mild to messy in less than a day.
Precipitation Patterns and Types
In mid-March, North Dakota throws a mix of snow, rain, or both your way—sometimes all in the same day. The type and amount usually depend on temperature swings, storm tracks, and where you are in the state.
Snowfall Probabilities
Snow is still common in North Dakota during mid-March, but totals are all over the place. On St. Patrick’s Day, average snowfall ranges from 0.2 to 0.5 inches at most long-term climate sites.
Some years, there’s no snow at all. In others, more than 3 to 6 inches can fall in a single day.
You’re more likely to see snow in the north and east, where cold air hangs on longer. Even a light snowfall can combine with strong winds, causing blowing and drifting.
Snow depth on the ground can be a big deal. Some spots report more than 10 inches of snowpack in mid-March, so travel can get tricky even if no new snow falls.
Rain and Mixed Precipitation
Rain becomes more likely when highs climb into the upper 30s or 40s. In southern and central North Dakota, measurable rain has fallen on some St. Patrick’s Days, usually totaling 0.05 to 0.20 inches.
Even light rain can make roads slick when temperatures drop after sunset.
Mixed precipitation is another possibility. Sometimes, rain flips to snow or you get freezing rain in the morning. These messy transitions matter for drivers, since even a little ice can cause hazardous travel.
When it’s warmer than usual, rain can take over instead of snow. Thunderstorms have even happened in rare cases, though that’s pretty unusual for March up here.
Regional Variations Across North Dakota
Precipitation patterns really depend on your location. Eastern North Dakota, including Fargo and Grand Forks, usually sees more snow thanks to colder air and moisture from the Red River Valley.
Western North Dakota, like Williston and Dickinson, tends to get less precipitation overall. Storms from the Rockies can bring snow, but totals are usually lower than in the east.
In central North Dakota, including Bismarck, the weather is more of a wild card. Some years are snowy, others bring rain or a mix. This area often sits right on the line between warm and cold air, so forecasts get tricky.
If you’re traveling, be ready for different conditions just a hundred miles apart. You could go from dry roads to fresh snow in no time.
Thunderstorms and Severe Weather Risks
March in North Dakota usually mixes late-winter chill with the first hints of spring. Thunderstorms can pop up, though not nearly as often as in summer.
Sometimes these storms bring strong winds, hail, or even isolated tornadoes.
Frequency of Thunderstorms
You’re not likely to see many thunderstorms around St. Patrick’s Day in North Dakota. The air is usually too cool and dry for storms to get going.
Most years, thunderstorm development is rare in mid-March.
Still, the switch from winter to spring can sometimes create just the right setup. If a strong low-pressure system pulls in Gulf moisture, you might get a few scattered storms. It’s not common, but it does happen.
When March thunderstorms do show up, they’re usually short-lived and not widespread like in May or June. So, while they’re possible, storms are definitely the exception, not the rule, for this time of year.
Associated Hazards
When a storm rolls through in mid-March, you’ll want to keep an eye out for the hazards it can bring. Strong winds usually pose the biggest threat, and they can knock down trees, power lines, or even damage small sheds and outbuildings.
Hail sometimes shows up too, though it’s usually not as big as what you might see later in spring. Still, if the setup is right, hail can ding up vehicles or hurt crops.
Occasionally, folks in the Plains have spotted isolated tornadoes in March. The risk in North Dakota stays pretty low, but you can’t say it never happens when a strong system sweeps through.
Thunderstorms might also dump heavy rain on frozen or waterlogged ground. That can cause minor flooding in low areas.
Severe weather isn’t really the norm for March, but it’s smart to pay attention to the forecast just in case.
Transition to Spring: Weather Changes After St. Patrick’s Day
As March goes on, North Dakota starts to thaw out. Temperatures rise, and the snowpack loses its grip.
These changes bring some milder days, but they can also mean flooding as the frozen ground and rivers deal with all that extra runoff.
Warming Trends
After mid-March, you’ll notice average high temperatures climbing. Early in the month, highs might stick in the 30s, but by late March, you can see 40s or even low 50s in a lot of places.
Nights stay cold for a while, but once the sun comes up, it melts snow fast.
That usually means you get a freeze-thaw cycle. Roads can be icy in the morning, then slushy or clear by afternoon.
Out on rural gravel roads, the melting makes things muddy and tough to drive through as the day goes on.
Precipitation patterns shift too. Snow can still fall, but rain starts showing up more often.
Even a little rain on top of melting snow can speed up runoff and soak the ground.
You’ll want to plan for all kinds of conditions—some days will feel like winter just won’t quit, while others give you a taste of spring.
Flood Risks from Melting Snow
Snowmelt drives most of the spring flooding in North Dakota. When daytime highs finally climb above freezing, melting speeds up.
If the ground stays frozen, water can’t soak in. Instead, it rushes straight into streams and rivers.
The Red River Valley tends to flood more than other areas. Its flat landscape lets water spread out fast, and ice jams sometimes make things worse.
Even small creeks can rise quickly if there’s a deep snowpack that melts all at once.
Rain during this time just adds to the mess. Just half an inch of rain on top of melting snow can dump a surprising amount of water in a hurry.
It’s smart to keep an eye on river forecasts. Be ready for travel delays or unexpected detours in low-lying spots.