This article highlights a new mathematical model developed by Gottfried Kirchengast’s team at the University of Graz. The model quantifies how human-driven climate change reshapes extreme weather by analyzing the frequency, duration, intensity and spatial extent of heat events across Europe.
It uses long-term temperature records to track changes year by year and decade by decade.
Modeling climate extremes: a new metric-based approach
The researchers introduce a framework that computes detailed climate hazard metrics and can monitor shifting risk patterns wherever robust data exist. This approach enables year-by-year monitoring as well as decade-scale analyses.
With Europe as the testbed, the team applied the model to daily maximum temperatures spanning 1961–2024. They defined “extreme” on a local basis as days exceeding the 1961–1990 daily threshold by the top 1 percent.
This regional baseline allows comparisons that account for climate and seasonal differences across countries.
How the model defines extremes and uses a baseline
The method uses a fixed historical reference period (1961–1990) to identify unusually hot days. It then flags events that fall into the top 1 percent locally.
Thresholds vary by location, for instance about 30°C in Austria, over 35°C in southern Spain and roughly 25°C in Finland. By anchoring extremes to a consistent baseline, the model distinguishes long-term climate shifts from natural year-to-year variability.
Evidence from Europe: what the data show
Applying the model to the European record reveals a dramatic intensification of heat extremity. In Austria and much of Central and Southern Europe, total heat extremity rose by roughly a factor of ten in 2010–2024 compared with 1961–1990.
Researchers emphasize that this acceleration constitutes compelling evidence of human influence on climate. The findings complement health and economic analyses showing the real-world consequences of hotter summers.
Health and mortality implications
Last summer’s extreme heat led to thousands of deaths across Europe. Independent analyses by Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine attributed about 68 percent of an estimated 24,400 heat-related deaths to climate change and temperature increases up to 3.6°C above preindustrial baselines.
This attribution underscores the direct human costs linked to shifting extreme heat patterns.
Economic costs and regional impacts
The heat surge also translated into substantial economic losses. The 2025 extreme summer alone produced at least €43 billion in short-term losses.
Projected cumulative costs could reach €126 billion by 2029. These figures reflect immediate disruption to energy systems, transport, productivity and health care demands in a warming climate.
A separate study led by Dr. Sehrish Usman and ECB collaborators found that a quarter of EU regions experienced heatwaves, droughts or floods in summer 2025. These events caused immediate losses equivalent to 0.26 percent of the EU’s 2024 economic output.
The authors caution that this estimate may understate total harm because it omits compound-event impacts where multiple hazards interact to amplify damage.
Policy implications and adaptation strategies
The convergence of hazard modeling and observed impacts points to several policy priorities. Maintaining and expanding long-term, high-quality climate records is essential to sustain accurate risk assessments.
Hazard-based metrics can inform infrastructure design and public health preparedness. Aligning climate attribution with economic planning helps Europe target adaptation funding and resilience investments where the benefits are greatest.
Concluding perspective
Taken together, the Graz-model results reinforce a clear message: human-driven climate change is reshaping the extremity of heat across Europe, beyond natural variability.
By translating complex climate signals into actionable hazard metrics, the study provides a robust tool for policymakers, researchers and practitioners seeking to anticipate risks, protect health, and guide adaptive investments in a warming world.
Here is the source article for this story: Groundbreaking study reveals tenfold heat increase over Europe