Thanksgiving in Minnesota usually brings crisp air, gray skies, and sometimes snow underfoot. Daytime highs often land in the 30s, with lows dropping into the teens. If you’re in the Twin Cities, you’ve got about a one-in-three shot at seeing at least an inch of snow on the ground.
Northern Minnesota gets even better odds for snow cover, so it really feels like winter up there. Honestly, late November in Minnesota rarely feels like autumn.
You can never quite predict what Thanksgiving will bring, and that’s part of the fun (or frustration). Some years surprise everyone with afternoons in the 50s or 60s. Other years, the mercury plunges below zero and wind chills make you question your holiday plans.
Travel conditions jump from calm and dry to icy or stormy, depending on the year.
Knowing what’s typical helps you pack the right coat and plan for surprises. If you look at long-term records, you’ll notice how Thanksgiving weather has shifted, how extremes have shaped holiday gatherings, and what patterns tend to pop up in different corners of the state.
Typical Thanksgiving Weather in Minnesota
Thanksgiving in Minnesota often signals the start of winter, but the weather swings a lot. You’ll usually get chilly days, maybe some snow on the ground, and short daylight hours paired with a steady breeze.
Average Temperatures
Thanksgiving temperatures really depend on where you are. In the Twin Cities and Rochester, daytime highs usually hover in the upper 30s °F. St. Cloud averages about 34 °F. Duluth and International Falls? They’re colder—think upper 20s to low 30s °F.
At night, the cold sets in. Most of Minnesota sees lows in the teens °F, while the north can dip into single digits.
Warm Thanksgivings do happen, but don’t count on them. Highs in the 50s or even 60s °F have shown up, but only about once a decade in the Twin Cities. On the flip side, extreme cold has pushed temps well below zero, with records in the -20s and -30s °F up north.
| Location | Average High (°F) | Average Low (°F) |
|---|---|---|
| Twin Cities | 38 | 22 |
| Rochester | 38 | 21 |
| St. Cloud | 34 | 18 |
| Duluth | 32 | 17 |
| International Falls | 29 | 12 |
Precipitation Patterns
Snowfall on Thanksgiving itself isn’t super common, but snow cover definitely is. In the Twin Cities, about a third of years have at least an inch of snow on the ground. Northern Minnesota gets snow cover much more often—International Falls reports it about seven out of ten years.
The biggest Thanksgiving snowfalls have hit over 8 inches in Duluth and around 5 inches in the Twin Cities. Rochester’s record is just under 4 inches. Big winter storms usually show up during the wider holiday travel period, not just on the day.
Rain doesn’t happen much, but it’s not impossible. Some years, Thanksgiving brought steady rainfall, even over an inch. It’s rare, but if you’re traveling, it’s worth keeping in mind.
Daylight and Wind Conditions
By late November, daylight is scarce. Across Minnesota, you get about 9 hours of sun, and sunset often sneaks in before 5 p.m. Early darkness can mess with travel or outdoor plans, especially if roads are slick or snowy.
Winds are another factor you can’t ignore. Breezes from the northwest are common and make the air feel even colder. Wind chills in the teens or single digits show up a lot, especially in the north.
Once in a while, you’ll get a calm day, but gusty conditions are more the norm. Strong winds can whip up blowing snow, cutting visibility for drivers. If you’re planning anything outside, always factor in the wind—it can make a big difference.
Historical Weather Trends and Extremes
Minnesota’s Thanksgiving weather has swung between mild afternoons and biting cold mornings. Some years bring sharp contrasts in temperature, snow cover, and storminess, depending on where you are. These patterns just show how unpredictable late November can be.
Record Highs and Lows
Thanksgiving in Minnesota has seen wild temperature swings. The Twin Cities hit a record 62°F in both 1914 and 1922. Even in 2012, it climbed to 60°F—definitely not your typical late November.
On the cold end, northern towns like International Falls have dropped below -30°F, including -32°F in 1985. The Twin Cities have seen below-zero Thanksgivings about ten times since the late 1800s.
These extremes mean you might need only a light jacket one year, and the next, you’re bundling up against subzero wind chills. That’s Minnesota for you.
Notable Snowfall Events
Thanksgiving snow tends to be light, but some years break the mold. Duluth holds the record with 8.1 inches in one day, while the Twin Cities have topped out at 5 inches. Rochester’s max is 3.7 inches.
Snow on the ground is more common than fresh snow falling. In the Twin Cities, about a third of Thanksgivings have at least an inch of snow. The deepest snowpack was 10 inches in both 1921 and 1983.
Northern Minnesota takes the cake for snowiness. International Falls has had at least an inch of snow on the ground nearly 70% of the time, with a whopping 17 inches in 1955. Your travel plans can really depend on where you’re headed.
Memorable Thanksgiving Storms
The holiday travel period has brought some of Minnesota’s most memorable storms. In 1896, a two-day rain event dumped nearly 3 inches in the Twin Cities, soaking travelers.
Heavy snow has landed right around the holiday, too. In 1918, a storm brought one of the biggest November snowfalls on record in parts of Iowa and southern Minnesota, just as families gathered.
Blizzards and ice storms around Thanksgiving have stranded drivers, closed roads, and delayed flights. Even if the holiday itself is quiet, the days before or after often bring MN weather extremes that can mess with your plans. Planning ahead is never a bad idea if you’re driving.
Recent Weather Patterns and Climate Trends
Thanksgiving in Minnesota really shows how much the season can shift. Temperatures have gradually warmed. Snowfall is less predictable, and long-term data says November isn’t as cold as it used to be.
Warming Trends in November
You can spot a clear warming trend in Minnesota Novembers over the decades. In the Twin Cities, the average Thanksgiving temperature has gone up about 7.5°F since the late 1800s, most of that after 1970.
Northern and rural areas see similar changes. For example, records from Milan in west-central Minnesota show a rise of about 6.6°F since 1970. That might not sound huge, but it changes the chances of snow cover and makes late fall feel different.
Milder Novembers bring more days in the 40s or 50s, especially down south. Cold snaps still pop up, but overall, late autumn is warmer than it was for past generations.
Impact of Climate Change
Climate change shapes what you can expect for Thanksgiving weather. Warmer averages mean less deep snow cover, especially in the southern half of Minnesota. These days, the Twin Cities see bare ground about two out of every three Thanksgivings.
Warming also changes the kind of precipitation you get. Storms that once brought snow now more often bring rain or a messy rain-snow mix. Records even show rare but memorable rainstorms over the holiday, like nearly 3 inches in 1896.
Another thing—winter storms are arriving later. Minnesota still gets major blizzards in late November, but not as consistently as decades ago. Heavy snowfalls seem to wait until December or even January.
Comparison to Previous Decades
If you compare recent years to old climate records, the change stands out. In the late 1800s and early 1900s, subzero lows on Thanksgiving happened more often. Now, below-zero readings in the Twin Cities show up only about once every 15 years.
Snow depth has shifted too. Back in the 1920s and 1930s, seeing 5–10 inches of snow on the ground during Thanksgiving wasn’t rare. Lately, snow cover above a few inches is much less likely, especially in the south.
Northern Minnesota still holds onto its snowier reputation. International Falls records at least an inch of snow on the ground in about 70% of Thanksgivings, compared to only one in three years in the Twin Cities. Regional differences are still strong, even with overall warming.
Regional Variations Across Minnesota
Thanksgiving weather in Minnesota really depends on where you are. Temperatures, snow cover, and even the chance of rain change as you move from north to south, so travel and outdoor plans can look pretty different across the state.
Twin Cities Area
The Twin Cities usually see high temperatures in the upper 30s °F, with lows in the 20s °F. About one in three years, you’ll find at least an inch of snow on the ground. The deepest snow cover ever recorded here hit 10 inches.
Every so often, mild years pop up, with highs in the 50s °F showing up about once every 13 years. The warmest Thanksgiving hit 62 °F back in the early 1900s, but the coldest years have dipped below zero.
Rain isn’t common, but it has happened. Over an inch fell during Thanksgiving in the late 1800s. Roads are usually clear for travel, but icy conditions can develop fast when temps hover around freezing.
Northern Minnesota
Northern Minnesota is colder and snowier, no surprise there. Cities like International Falls and Duluth often see highs in the 20s to low 30s °F, with lows in the teens or single digits. Subzero temps aren’t rare, especially during cold snaps.
Snow cover is almost a given. In International Falls, about 70% of Thanksgivings have at least an inch of snow. The record snow depth? 17 inches. Some years, travel gets tricky.
Extreme cold has hit hard up north. Temps have dropped below -30 °F in past decades, sometimes right before or during big storms. If you’re driving or spending time outside, be ready for harsher conditions than you’d find in the south.
Southern Minnesota
Southern Minnesota, including Rochester and nearby towns, is a bit milder. Highs usually land in the mid to upper 30s °F, with lows in the 20s °F. Thanksgiving snow is often light, with the record just under 4 inches.
Snow cover is hit or miss. Some years, you’ll see bare ground. Other years bring a few inches. Rain is more likely here than up north, but still not common.
Warm spells show up more often in this region. Highs in the 50s °F have happened several times, making outdoor gatherings a little more appealing. Still, sharp cold fronts can drop temps fast, so it pays to stay flexible.
Weather Forecast Considerations for Thanksgiving Travel
When you’re planning Thanksgiving travel in Minnesota, weather can make or break your schedule. Cold air, snow, and icy roads can slow you down. Warmer-than-normal years might be easier, but rain or fog can still cause headaches.
Typical Travel Hazards
You should expect just about anything—late November sits right between fall and winter here. Snow can show up fast, and even a little can make roads slick. Ice is often a bigger problem than snow, especially overnight or in the early morning.
Wind also plays a big role. Strong gusts can blow snow across highways, especially in open parts of southern and western Minnesota. Even on clear days, drifting snow can create icy spots that catch drivers off guard.
Rain is uncommon but not out of the question. When it’s cold, rain can quickly freeze into drizzle, coating roads and sidewalks. Mild stretches sometimes bring fog, which can cut visibility during those busy travel times.
About one in three Thanksgivings in the Twin Cities has at least an inch of snow on the ground, while northern places like International Falls see snow cover most years. So, you should plan for at least some winter-related hazards if you’re hitting the road.
Forecast Accuracy and Planning
Forecasts for Thanksgiving week get a lot more reliable when you’re within 5 to 7 days of the holiday. Before that, you mostly get broad trends like warmer than average or colder than average.
You really should check for new updates often, especially in Minnesota, because the weather can flip quickly.
Short-term forecasts make it a lot easier to pick the safest travel window. For instance, if snow shows up in the forecast for late Wednesday, you might want to leave earlier that day to avoid trouble.
Many travelers say Black Friday usually brings calmer weather, at least if you look at long-term climate records.
It’s smart to watch both statewide and local forecasts.
Weather in Duluth, Rochester, and the Twin Cities can look completely different, and northern Minnesota tends to get hit with harsher conditions sooner.
Check National Weather Service updates, local TV, and road condition maps to help decide when to head out.
Try to keep your plans flexible.
If you build in extra time and adjust your schedule as the forecast changes, you’ll probably avoid delays or hazardous driving.
What to Expect: Thanksgiving Week Outlook
Late November in Minnesota usually brings a mix of mild and chilly days. Some years you’ll see a bit of rain or snow, depending on how things shake out.
The week tends to serve up variable weather that can mess with travel, especially right before and after the holiday.
Temperature Fluctuations
During Thanksgiving week, Minnesota often sees highs anywhere from the upper 20s up to the low 40s °F.
On the warmer years, daytime temps might hit the mid-40s, but in colder years, you might not even see 30.
Nights drop off fast, with temps often falling into the teens.
The Twin Cities usually land in the mid-30s for highs, while up north it stays a bit cooler.
Layering your clothes is a good idea since the temperature can swing a lot between morning and afternoon.
Some years, warm spells sneak in—southerly winds can push up air from the Central Plains and give you a break from the cold.
Still, cold fronts often barge in during this week, and sometimes the temperature drops sharply in just a few hours.
Precipitation Chances
You could see rain or snow, but it usually doesn’t add up to much.
Historical averages say measurable precipitation hits about one out of every three Thanksgivings in Minnesota.
Rain tends to show up more in the southern half of the state, while up north, snow is more likely.
Even when you get precipitation, it usually comes and goes quickly—not those long, drawn-out storms.
Travelers really need to watch those midweek forecasts since Wednesday is a huge travel day.
Even light rain or drizzle can make roads slick, and freezing rain, though rare, can happen if temps hover near 32 °F.
Snowfall Possibilities
Snow cover on Thanksgiving in Minnesota actually happens less often than people think. In the Twin Cities, snow sits on the ground about 40% of the time, at least if you trust the records.
Northern Minnesota, though, feels a bit different. Duluth and the Iron Range usually see at least some snowpack by late November.
When snow falls during Thanksgiving week, it’s usually pretty light. Most years, you’ll only see less than 2 inches.
Big storms can happen, but they’re not all that common. They tend to show up only when cold air really settles in.
If you’re driving, remember that even just a dusting of snow can make roads icy, especially after dark. Packing winter gear and giving yourself extra travel time just makes sense if you’re planning holiday trips in Minnesota.