This blog post summarizes a recent FOX Weather segment featuring LSU Professor Jill Trepanier. She discussed the surprisingly calm Atlantic during what is usually the peak of hurricane season.
I explain why the basin has been quieter than seasonal forecasts predicted. I also describe what atmospheric factors are responsible and why residents along the coast should remain prepared despite the lull.
Drawing on three decades of experience studying tropical meteorology, I put Trepanier’s observations into context. I offer clear steps for readiness.
Why the Atlantic has been unusually quiet
Professor Trepanier noted that the Atlantic basin has seen less storm activity than expected so far this season. Many seasonal outlooks called for above-average hurricane development.
The contrast between forecasted activity and reality has raised questions among forecasters and the public alike.
Two main atmospheric factors are suppressing storm formation: increased wind shear and the presence of dry air over large portions of the basin. Strong vertical wind shear tears apart developing thunderstorms before they can consolidate into tropical cyclones.
Dry air inhibits convection and the deep thunderstorm activity tropical storms need to strengthen.
How wind shear and dry air work together to suppress storms
Wind shear can be thought of as hostile environmental wind patterns that prevent a storm’s structure from organizing. When combined with intrusions of dry air—often from subtropical high-pressure systems or Saharan dust—the result is an environment where embryonic disturbances are much less likely to intensify.
Atmospheric patterns can shift quickly, and regions that are inhospitable one week may become favorable the next. Trepanier emphasized that a quiet stretch does not guarantee a quiet remainder of the season.
Why complacency would be dangerous
One of Trepanier’s central warnings is simple but vital: it only takes one major storm to cause disproportionate impacts. Historical records show numerous seasons that were quiet early on but produced powerful late-season hurricanes that caused significant damage.
From a risk perspective, a single landfalling hurricane can overwhelm preparedness systems and cause severe human and economic losses, regardless of the season’s overall activity level. That’s why maintaining vigilance and readiness is essential for coastal communities and emergency managers.
Practical preparedness steps for coastal residents
Preparedness doesn’t require panic—just consistent, practical action.
Below are focused steps recommended by meteorologists and emergency managers, and echoed by Trepanier’s message:
- Maintain an emergency kit: water, nonperishable food, medications, batteries, and first-aid supplies for at least 72 hours.
- Review and update evacuation plans: know routes, shelters, and how to secure pets and property.
- Monitor official sources: National Hurricane Center advisories, local emergency management, and trusted weather outlets like FOX Weather and university meteorology departments.
- Stay insured and document property: take photos, store records digitally, and understand your coverage.
Continued monitoring is essential—even if the Atlantic remains calm for several more weeks.
Weather patterns can change rapidly, and forecasters rely on up-to-date observations to issue timely warnings.
With wind shear and dry air currently suppressing storms, the situation can shift without much notice.
Coastal residents should stay informed, keep preparedness plans current, and never assume that calm means no danger.
Here is the source article for this story: Peak hurricane season arrives | Latest Weather Clips