This post examines why extreme thunderstorms are becoming more frequent and more destructive, what that means for people and infrastructure, and what steps society must take to reduce risk.
Drawing on recent coverage and three decades of experience in atmospheric science, I explain the physical drivers behind stronger storms, the wide-ranging impacts from cities to farms, and the practical measures—both technical and policy—that can blunt future damage.
Why extreme thunderstorms are intensifying
Over recent decades we have observed a clear shift: storms that once were rare are now occurring more often and with greater intensity.
The primary driver is a warming atmosphere that, all else equal, holds more water vapor and supplies storms with more fuel.
This additional moisture translates into heavier rainfall, higher lightning rates, stronger downdrafts and updrafts, and a greater likelihood of destructive phenomena such as microbursts and large hail.
Observations and modelling both indicate that even modest increases in average global temperature can amplify the severity of convective storms.
The science: warmer air, more energy, more moisture
Warmer air holds more moisture—a basic thermodynamic fact that directly increases the rainfall potential of thunderstorms.
In an environment with more latent heat, updrafts become stronger and storms more vigorous.
That boosts the odds of intense wind gusts, large hailstones, and concentrated bands of extreme precipitation that lead to flash floods.
How storms turn deadly and costly
Storm impacts depend heavily on where they occur.
Urban areas with large expanses of impermeable surfaces funnel rainfall into fast-moving runoff, increasing flash flood risk and straining stormwater systems.
Rural and agricultural areas face different hazards: high winds and large hail can decimate crops, damage equipment, and topple power transmission lines.
The economic toll is rising sharply, with billions of dollars of damages recorded annually.
These impacts are compounded by aging infrastructure and gaps in preparedness.
What we must do: forecasting, resilience, and emissions reduction
Reducing casualties and economic losses requires a three-pronged approach: better forecasting and warning, resilient physical systems, and aggressive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
These elements operate on different timescales but are all necessary.
Short-term improvements in forecasting and warning can save lives immediately.
Investments in resilient design and land-use planning reduce exposure.
Long-term mitigation of storm trend acceleration depends on cutting emissions to limit future warming.
Practical steps and policy priorities
From my point of view, the following actions deserve priority:
Here is the source article for this story: It’s challenging to predict extreme thunderstorms—improving this will help reduce their deadly and costly impacts