This blog post examines recent reductions in the National Weather Service’s forecasting capacity following budget cuts by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
I summarize what was cut, why those reductions matter for severe and winter weather forecasting, and the operational and public-safety implications of losing both observational assets and experienced staff.
The cuts: fewer weather balloons and fewer hands on deck
The most immediate technical change is the elimination of weather balloon launches at 13 U.S. sites.
This means a reduction in the real-time vertical atmospheric observations that feed numerical weather prediction models.
Nationwide, weather balloons are normally launched about twice daily at roughly 100 locations.
In high-impact situations, some offices increase that cadence to four times a day to sharpen forecasts for events such as hurricanes.
Equally consequential are the personnel losses: the DOGE-driven budget reductions resulted in nearly 600 National Weather Service employees leaving.
Many veteran meteorologists with decades of operational experience are among those who departed.
Those departures reduce institutional knowledge and stretch remaining staff during multi-day or high-impact events.
Why weather balloons matter to forecasting
Weather balloons provide vertical profiles of temperature, humidity and winds through the atmosphere — data that numerical models ingest to produce initial conditions.
When those initial conditions are degraded, model forecasts, especially for rapid-evolving severe or winter systems, can lose accuracy.
In operational practice, forecasters rely on increased radiosonde frequency during major outbreaks to refine short-term guidance and warning products.
Operational impacts and public-safety risks
The combined loss of observational sites and experienced forecasters has practical consequences for emergency response and community safety.
Staff shortages make it harder for local forecast offices to sustain round-the-clock operations during prolonged events.
That can reduce the timeliness and specificity of warnings when they matter most.
High-impact examples illustrate the problem: complex, fast-moving events such as the 2020 derecho demanded intense staffing and data flow to track rapid changes.
Many forecast offices now report that maintaining that level of effort over several days is more difficult without the full complement of personnel and data sources.
Voices from the field
Ray Wolf, a retired National Weather Service meteorologist, warned that losing both skilled staff and critical data will erode forecasting accuracy over time.
He cautioned that continued cuts could ultimately increase loss of life and property during extreme weather events — a stark reminder that forecasting is not just a technical exercise but a core public-safety function.
Can the NWS rebound? Challenges ahead
The National Weather Service is now authorized to recruit for roughly 450 open positions.
However, rebuilding operational expertise is not immediate: hiring, training, and restoring institutional memory takes years.
Some specialized skills — such as mesoscale forecasters with storm warning experience — are developed over long operational careers.
Restoring observational coverage cannot be achieved simply by rehiring staff.
Reestablishing balloon-launch capabilities at the 13 sites requires logistics, equipment and trained radiosonde technicians.
Modeling systems will continue to feel the impacts of persistent gaps in real-time data.
What this means for communities and decision-makers
Decision-makers should treat weather forecasting capacity as critical infrastructure. Investments in observations and personnel directly support more accurate warnings and better-informed emergency management.
For communities, the present cuts underscore the importance of preparedness and public education. When forecasting certainty is reduced, conservative decisions and robust preparedness measures become even more important.
As a meteorologist with decades of operational experience, I urge policymakers to consider the downstream costs of eroding forecasting systems.
Technical assets like weather balloons and experienced staff are not optional extras. They are foundational components of a resilient weather enterprise that protects lives and property.
Here is the source article for this story: Even with OK to hire, DOGE cuts to National Weather Service create concern for future