This post summarizes the California Department of Water Resources’ recent warning about heightened water-year risks driven by climate variability and operational strains. It explains the forecasted pattern of long dry stretches interrupted by powerful atmospheric river storms, the added uncertainty from a developing La Niña, current reservoir and groundwater conditions, and how federal staffing shortfalls could weaken monitoring and response capacities.
It outlines practical steps residents and managers should consider this season.
California faces “big swings” in weather and water this year
State officials are advising Californians to expect dramatic variability: extended dry periods punctuated by intense, fast-moving storms often delivered by atmospheric rivers. This is not a typical, steady water-year forecast but one marked by rapid transitions between drought and deluge.
What the science and pattern signals
La Niña is developing in the tropical Pacific. State climatologist Michael Anderson emphasized that it adds a layer of uncertainty.
In some years a La Niña pattern has been associated with prolonged dryness; in others, it precedes sequences of intense winter storms that deliver a large portion of annual precipitation in short order.
Anderson compared the outlook to notable recent years: in 2013 and 2022 storms ended abruptly. In 2023, a season’s worth of winter weather arrived in a matter of weeks.
These rapid swings are consistent with the broader signal from global climate change — warmer atmosphere and ocean patterns are amplifying extremes and increasing the likelihood of both severe drought and intense precipitation events.
Supply snapshot: reservoirs slightly healthy but groundwater remains stressed
On the surface, reservoir storage is encouragingly around or slightly above average. Beneath the surface, long-term water security looks more precarious.
Groundwater — the reservoir many communities rely on between wet years — is showing signs of stress.
Reservoir and well statistics to watch
Current figures show reservoir levels are marginally above historical averages, offering short-term buffer capacity for flood control and water delivery. By contrast, groundwater monitoring reveals troubling signals: approximately 27% of monitored wells are below normal levels.
At least 53 wells have been reported dry already this season. These numbers underscore unequal impacts across regions and the long lag in recovering aquifers after dry years.
Operational challenges: monitoring and forecasting constrained
Water managers warned that federal staffing cuts are reducing essential capabilities for tracking and responding to these extremes. The loss of personnel affects data collection and real-time decision support at a time when accurate information is more valuable than ever.
Impacts of staffing cuts and potential federal shutdown
Karla Nemeth, director of the Department of Water Resources, noted reductions in federal support are hampering routine operations: snowpack measurements, streamflow monitoring, and some forecasting functions are being eroded.
Deputy director Laura Holland confirmed state teams are filling many gaps but said critical monitoring and forecasting capacity remains limited.
In the event of a federal government shutdown, essential operators for the Central Valley Project would remain on duty. Many day-to-day federal partners — those who supply data, models and field crews — could be unavailable, complicating coordinated responses to both floods and droughts.
How residents and managers should prepare now
Uncertainty is the dominant theme: water supplies and flood risks will hinge on how atmospheric rivers, La Niña dynamics, and operational capacity unfold.
Preparing for a season of extremes reduces risk for households and the state.
Practical steps
- Conserve water at home now. Small reductions add resilience to stressed groundwater systems.
- Stay informed by following state forecasts. Monitor local emergency alerts for atmospheric river warnings and flood advisories.
- Check well health if you rely on groundwater. Document dry or low wells to help local agencies prioritize assistance.
- Prepare emergency plans and kits for both drought (rationing) and flood (evacuation) scenarios.
- Support monitoring and advocacy for staffing and funding. This sustains vital hydrologic observing networks.
Here is the source article for this story: ‘Expect extremes’: California officials warn of severe wet–dry swings