This blog post explains recent analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) showing a dramatic fall in UK wheat production between 2020 and 2024 and what that means for British food security, farming and climate policy.
I draw on three decades of experience in agricultural science to put the figures in context, explain the weather and climate drivers, and outline practical responses that policymakers and farmers should consider.
What the numbers tell us about UK wheat supply
Between 2020 and 2024 UK wheat production dropped by more than seven million tonnes, according to the ECIU.
To put that in everyday terms, the shortfall is roughly equivalent to over a year’s supply of British bread — about four billion loaves — a stark illustration of how climate and weather can quickly translate into supply pressures on everyday staples.
The fall in output has already pushed the UK’s wheat self-sufficiency down sharply, from 96% in 2023 to 79% in 2024.
This has forced imports to rise: last autumn wheat imports were about double the five-year average to meet milling demand for bread, cakes and biscuits.
Recent harvests and the role of extreme weather
The pattern behind these numbers is clear: a succession of extreme weather events has damaged crops at critical stages.
The UK saw its worst harvests on record in 2020 and 2024, when extreme wet conditions affected establishment and quality.
In contrast, the hot dry spring and summer in 2025 points to another very poor season emerging from heat and drought stress.
These swings — from record rainfall to record heat — are not random.
Experts note that warmer, wetter winters and more intense rainfall events are consistent with climate change projections for the UK, increasing the frequency and severity of crop losses and making it harder for good years to offset bad ones.
Practical implications for farmers and consumers
For farmers this volatility means planning for a new normal: greater risk of waterlogging, erosion and disease after heavy rainfall.
It also means heat damage and reduced yields in dry spells.
For consumers and the food industry it translates into price volatility and a heavier reliance on imports to meet consistent milling quality and volume.
Immediate adaptation measures and longer-term solutions
There are two complementary strategies: short-term adaptations to protect yields now, and long-term climate mitigation to reduce the scale of future change.
Short-term, practical measures include:
What policymakers must consider
Policy responses should combine short-term financial support for affected growers with investments in resilience, such as research, advisory services, and infrastructure. A committed pathway to net zero emissions is also essential.
Trade and food policy must be adjusted to ensure supply security. These policies should also support domestic farming through transition.
As someone who has worked with farming systems through good and bad seasons, I recognise the resilience of British agriculture. However, resilience needs investment and clear policy.
Here is the source article for this story: Year’s worth of British bread lost since 2020 amid extreme weather