This blog post summarizes a recent interview with John Uehling, a research scientist at the North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies, about evolving conditions in the Atlantic basin and the potential for an uptick in storm activity.
I explain what the observations mean, why warmer sea surface temperatures matter, and what communities and emergency managers should consider as we enter a period of heightened risk.
Atlantic basin showing signs of increased activity
Uehling told FOX Weather that the Atlantic basin is exhibiting indicators consistent with a more active storm season.
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are aligning in ways that favor cyclone formation and intensification, a pattern that requires close attention over the coming weeks.
These observations are not a single data point but a convergence of signals — including temperature anomalies at the ocean surface and shifts in large-scale atmospheric patterns.
Together, these factors raise the probability of more frequent and stronger systems.
How warmer sea surface temperatures fuel storms
Warmer sea surface temperatures are a primary driver of tropical cyclone strength.
As the ocean releases heat and moisture to the atmosphere, it supplies the energy that storms convert into wind, rain, and sustained circulation.
When sea surface temperatures are above average across broad swaths of the Atlantic, the potential exists for storms to become stronger and to maintain intensity over longer tracks.
This can translate into more powerful landfalling hurricanes, heavier precipitation, and prolonged impacts for affected regions.
Forecasting is improving — but uncertainty remains
Uehling emphasized that while forecasting tools have advanced, especially with better models and more observational data, uncertainty still limits precise predictions of individual storm tracks and intensities.
Improved models help identify windows of increased risk, but they don’t eliminate the need for caution and preparedness.
Ensemble forecasting, satellite monitoring, and expanded ocean observing networks have reduced some risk.
Yet the chaotic nature of the atmosphere and the sensitivity of storms to small changes mean that forecasts will always carry margins of error.
Preparedness: what communities and individuals should do now
Given the elevated possibility of more active conditions, Uehling stressed preparedness.
Communities, emergency managers, and individuals should use early-season signals as a prompt to review and update plans.
- Review emergency plans: Ensure evacuation routes, communication plans, and shelter information are current.
- Stock essential supplies: Water, nonperishable food, medicines, and power alternatives should be replenished.
- Stay informed: Follow official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and local emergency management agencies.
- Protect property: Secure loose objects, trim trees, and consider flood mitigation measures for vulnerable homes.
Final thoughts: vigilance and action
Uehling’s interview is a timely reminder that environmental conditions can change rapidly. The combination of warmer seas and favorable atmospheric patterns can elevate storm risks.
Keep an eye on official updates. Refresh your preparedness checklist and coordinate with local authorities.
The coming weeks will be important for understanding how this season evolves.
Here is the source article for this story: Atlantic Basin begins to stir with activity | Latest Weather Clips