This blog post explains the World Weather Attribution (WWA) analysis showing that human-caused climate change significantly intensified Hurricane Melissa, a devastating Atlantic storm that struck Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba.
I summarize the key scientific findings — from stronger winds and heavier rain to warmer ocean temperatures — and explain why Melissa’s behavior is an urgent warning about the future of hurricanes in a warming world.
Key findings from the World Weather Attribution analysis
The WWA study links human-driven warming to measurable increases in Hurricane Melissa’s destructive potential.
The analysis attributes a roughly 7% increase in maximum wind speeds and about 16% heavier rainfall near the storm’s center to changes in the climate since pre-industrial times.
The atmospheric conditions of temperature and humidity that fueled Melissa are estimated to be six times more likely now than they would have been in a pre-industrial climate.
Melissa caused catastrophic impacts across the Caribbean, killing dozens and severely damaging infrastructure and crops in Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba.
With peak sustained winds reaching 185 mph (298 kph), Melissa was one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record.
WWA’s analysis suggests that, absent the extra heat trapped by greenhouse gases, Melissa’s winds would have been roughly 10 mph (16 kph) weaker, which translates into materially less damage on the ground.
Quantified impacts: wind, rain, and sea temperatures
Ocean temperatures along Melissa’s path were about 1.4°C (2.5°F) warmer than in pre-industrial times.
Warmer sea surface temperatures supply more energy to tropical cyclones and increase atmospheric moisture, enabling storms to hold and dump more rain.
WWA’s numbers — stronger winds and heavier central rainfall — are consistent with these processes.
Melissa was also notable for its rapid intensification, becoming the fourth Atlantic hurricane that season to undergo such a fast escalation in strength.
Rapid intensification is increasingly linked to warming oceans because small increases in sea surface temperature and mid-level humidity can push storms past critical thresholds much faster than before.
Why this matters: rapid intensification and a warming world
The trends revealed by Melissa are not isolated anomalies but part of a growing pattern.
Warmer seas and higher atmospheric moisture are making hurricanes both wetter and stronger.
This combination increases the risk of severe flooding, storm surge, and wind damage in coastal and island communities that are often least able to absorb the impacts.
Understanding the scale and likelihood of climate change’s influence — such as the WWA finding that certain storm-fueling conditions are now six times more likely — matters for preparedness, policy, and disaster response planning.
These probabilistic assessments translate directly into choices about building codes, early warning systems, and international aid priorities.
Implications for Caribbean resilience and policy
Melissa should be read as a clear signal to policymakers, emergency managers, and communities across the Caribbean and Atlantic coasts.
Practical steps that follow from the science include:
Here is the source article for this story: Climate Change Boosted Hurricane Melissa’s Destructive Winds and Rain, Analysis Finds