This article summarizes AccuWeather’s 2026 long-range forecast for severe weather in the United States, highlighting a projected nationwide drop in tornadoes alongside persistent and regionally concentrated risks for Alabama. It also explains shifting rainfall patterns, potential impacts on flooding, and practical preparedness steps for residents and policymakers.
Overview of the 2026 tornado outlook
The forecast anticipates a total of about 1,050 to 1,250 tornadoes nationwide for the year, roughly 20–30% fewer than in 2025. While the national number trends downward, Alabama’s tornado threat is expected to remain notable, with only a modest reduction from prior years.
Advisories emphasize that Alabama’s risk profile will vary by region and season. Other severe-weather hazards—such as damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding—remain central concerns even when tornado activity is lower than in some recent years.
Regional risk highlights for Alabama and the Gulf Coast
In northern and central Alabama, including key population centers such as Huntsville and Decatur, the forecast points to a higher likelihood of severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail. These regions benefit from substantial instability during storm season, which can produce high-frequency severe weather even when classic tornado setups are less common.
Coastal counties face the risk of localized flooding driven by repeated thunderstorms, fed by the warmth of Gulf waters. Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Montgomery are highlighted as especially vulnerable to heavy downpours and flash flooding, with urban drainage and prolonged rainfall potentially challenging preparedness and response efforts.
- Northern and central Alabama: higher risk for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and hail (Huntsville, Decatur, and surrounding areas).
- Coastal counties: potential for localized flooding from repeated thunderstorms fueled by warm Gulf air.
- Major cities (Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Montgomery): heightened vulnerability to heavy rain and flash floods, even when tornado activity is lower.
Weather patterns, mechanisms, and why risk persists
A weaker upper-level jet stream may limit some classic tornado setups, but it is expected to favor organized thunderstorm systems capable of producing damaging winds and flooding. This means more multi-cellular storm complexes and squall-line activity that can deliver severe winds and heavy rainfall over broad areas, even if pure tornado outbreaks are less frequent than in peak years.
Shifts in precipitation patterns have increased extreme rainfall events in the United States by roughly 70% since 1995. This trend heightens flash flood concerns across much of the country, including Alabama.
Seasonal timing and flood-focused risks
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are anticipated from March through May. Late-April and May storms are likely to be intensified by warm, humid air feeding from the Gulf of Mexico.
These periods can produce intense rainfall, electricity-demanding storms, and rapid onset flooding in vulnerable areas.
Preparedness, planning, and protective steps
Residents are encouraged to review emergency plans and restock essential supplies. Staying informed through reliable weather updates is especially important during the peak risk months.
Reviewing insurance coverage for flood and wind damage can help households and businesses recover more quickly after events.
Authorities remind the public that tornadoes can occur year-round. Alabama’s typical peak activity occurs from March through May, with a secondary peak in November and December.
By understanding these seasonal patterns, communities can bolster readiness and improve sheltering options. Strengthening community resilience helps protect against a broad spectrum of severe weather events.
- Emerge ready: develop and practice family emergency plans, including communication strategies and designated safe spaces.
- Stay informed: monitor local alerts, NOAA Weather Radio, and trusted apps for real-time warnings during active seasons.
- Insurance review: verify flood, wind, and homeowners coverage to ensure adequate protection and faster recovery after storms.
Here is the source article for this story: Alabama faces severe storms, flood risk in 2026, AccuWeather warns