This post examines the North American Electric Reliability Corporation’s (NERC) recent urgent warning about potential winter power shortages in parts of the United States, with the Pacific Northwest called out as particularly vulnerable.
As someone with three decades of experience in grid reliability and energy systems, I’ll unpack the key findings, explain what is driving the heightened risk, and outline practical steps consumers and planners can take to improve resilience.
Why NERC’s warning matters
NERC, the organization created after major blackouts in 1965 and 2003 to monitor the security of North America’s bulk power system, issued its 2025–2026 Winter Reliability Assessment warning of an “elevated risk” for the Pacific Northwest.
This is not a routine forecast — it signals that under extreme winter weather the region may face supply shortfalls unless contingency plans are executed.
Drivers of rising winter demand
The assessment projects winter peak demand in the Pacific Northwest could increase by 2.9 gigawatts, or 9.3%, versus last winter.
That jump is substantial for a region that has historically managed tight winter balances.
NERC attributes that rise to several structural changes in the electricity load: the rapid expansion of data centers, accelerating residential and transportation electrification, and new semiconductor manufacturing facilities.
Combined, these sectors create persistent upward pressure on demand, particularly during cold snaps when heating loads coincide with industrial and digital demand peaks.
Importantly, NERC warns that balancing authorities might need “external assistance” to meet these peaks — and that during a region-wide cold event, mutual assistance may be unavailable.
That speaks to a systemic vulnerability: when all neighboring areas are stressed by the same weather, the usual contingency resources cannot be relied upon.
Climate change and extreme weather: the wildcard
Extreme weather events — colder, more volatile winters and the potential for simultaneous grid stresses — make planning more challenging.
No matter how much capacity is added, certain combinations of weather and simultaneous demand can overwhelm the system.
Limits of adding capacity and the role of resilience
Adding generation helps, but it is not a panacea.
NERC emphasizes the need to monitor climate-related risks and to build household and community resilience.
That includes not only planning for backup supply but also reducing dependence on centralized systems through distributed resources and smarter demand management.
What consumers and planners can do
Practical, cost-effective measures can reduce vulnerability and lower bills.
Many of these actions are complementary: they decrease peak demand, increase local reliability, and reduce the likelihood of emergency import needs.
Practical measures to improve resilience
Key options to consider include:
From a policy and utility planning perspective, investments in transmission, diversified generation portfolios, and improved forecasting are essential.
Transparency and clear communication help consumers prepare before grid operators need emergency actions.
Here is the source article for this story: Officials issue dire warning that US regions could experience ‘elevated risk’ of blackouts: ‘External assistance may not be available’