This post examines the growing crisis facing farmers across the Ozarks: a convergence of a corn surplus from last year, plunging prices, and this summer’s extreme heat and drought that have stunted corn during pollination and decimated pastures.
I explain how reduced hay yields, earlier-than-normal hay use, and rising feed costs are forcing difficult choices—selling livestock early, absorbing losses, or closing operations. This will ripple through the food supply chain and keep beef prices elevated.
Current situation in the Ozarks: weather, markets, and shrinking forage
After three decades in agricultural research and extension work, I’ve seen cycles of abundance and shortage. The combination playing out now is particularly damaging because it pairs economic vulnerability with severe weather.
Last season’s corn surplus left a carryover that pressured prices heading into this year, limiting cash flow for many producers.
Then came extreme heat and drought during a critical developmental window: the corn pollination stage. When pollination is compromised, kernel set fails and yields drop substantially.
Simultaneously, drought has scorched pastures across the Ozarks, turning perennial forage into insufficient grazing and reducing hay yields dramatically.
How pollination failure and pasture loss compound one another
Corn pollination occurs over a narrow timeframe and depends on adequate soil moisture and favorable temperatures. High heat accelerates crop development, often before the plant can sustain proper kernel fill.
Without a full corn crop, both grain income and potential silage for feed are reduced. At the same time, pasture failure forces livestock producers to rely on stored hay and purchased feed—resources that are now in shorter supply and higher demand.
Immediate impacts on livestock operations and markets
Producers like Ryan Thayer of Thayer Farms are reporting only three hay cuttings instead of the typical four or five. The final harvest produced roughly half the normal yield.
Many ranchers have begun tapping hay reserves months earlier than normal, a sign of acute stress on livestock nutrition plans.
As hay supplies tighten, feed costs rise. Some cattle operations face a stark choice: purchase expensive supplemental feed, liquidate animals early at reduced prices, or reduce herd sizes.
These actions alter market supply dynamics, supporting higher beef prices over the medium term.
What farmers are doing now to cope
Producers are employing a range of short-term and adaptive strategies. These include:
What this means for consumers and the supply chain
When producers reduce herd sizes and sell animals under duress, short-term meat supply can tighten while production costs remain high. That combination tends to keep retail beef prices elevated, with downstream effects on restaurants, grocery bills, and processors.
The shock also strains rural economies where farm income supports local businesses and services.
The interplay of low grain prices from carryover and the loss of on-farm feed sources creates a volatile economic environment. Producers may have grain at low market prices but lack the capacity to convert it into stored feed or silage in the drought-stricken landscape.
Outlook and practical recommendations
Policymakers and extension services should prioritize targeted relief and hay and feed distribution planning. Incentives for drought-resilient forage systems are also important.
On-farm tactics include conservative stocking rates and forward purchasing of feed where feasible. Exploring alternative forages is another useful approach.
Here is the source article for this story: FIRST ALERT WEATHER: Summer heat and drought lead to compounding impacts for farmers