This blog post explains the developing and intensifying heat dome over Europe that is producing a long-lasting, potentially historic heatwave through mid-August.
I summarize the regional temperature extremes, the physical mechanism behind the dome, the risks to health, agriculture and infrastructure, and what forecasts from major models indicate about the event’s persistence.
Current situation: scope and intensity
A powerful heat dome has built over southern and central Europe, pushing daytime temperatures into the 40–44 °C range across parts of southern France, Spain, Portugal, Italy and the Balkans.
The event is not static — it is spreading rapidly northward and eastward, bringing extreme heat to France, Germany, the Benelux countries, the UK, Poland and southern Scandinavia.
Forecasts call for particularly anomalous conditions in western Europe between August 12–14, with many locations seeing daily highs 8–15 °C above normal.
Both the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the US GFS model indicate the heat dome could stick around for at least another week beyond mid-August, prolonging hazardous conditions across much of the continent.
How the heat dome works and why it persists
Heat domes form when a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure traps warm air below, a phenomenon often described as a “lid effect.”
That lid suppresses convective cooling and allows solar heating to accumulate near the surface, producing prolonged and extreme temperatures similar to past record-breaking events in Europe and North America.
In this case the ridge is sufficiently intense to sustain multi-day heat, and model consensus suggests limited relief for at least several more days.
Regional impacts and record potential
Specific near-term temperature forecasts include 41–44 °C peaks in parts of Iberia and northern Italy.
Germany could reach 36–39 °C midweek, and southern and central England may hit 35 °C on Tuesday, August 12.
Meteorologists expect many local temperature records to be challenged or broken across the northern Mediterranean, the Adriatic coast and parts of central Europe.
High humidity in some areas will inflate the heat index, pushing perceived temperatures close to 50 °C.
This dramatically raises the risk of heat illness for outdoor workers, older adults, infants and people with chronic illnesses.
Risks: health, wildfires and infrastructure
The combination of extreme heat and prolonged dryness is already producing tinder-dry landscapes and amplified wildfire risk; several countries have imposed fire bans.
Infrastructure systems — electrical grids, transport networks, and water supplies — are vulnerable to heat-related failures, and agricultural yields may suffer where irrigation is limited.
What to do: preparedness and response
Communities should follow official heat-health guidance and be especially vigilant for vulnerable individuals. Practical measures include staying hydrated and avoiding strenuous outdoor activity during peak heat.
Use cooling centers where available. Ensure livestock and crops receive adequate water.
Authorities should pre-position firefighting assets and communicate clear restrictions on open fires. Monitor energy systems for strain.
Close attention to ECMWF and GFS updates will be essential for anticipating the dome’s evolution. Plan operations accordingly.
Stay informed via national meteorological services. Take heat warnings seriously over the coming weeks.
Here is the source article for this story: An extensive heatwave develops as the Heat Dome expands over Europe; extreme heat through mid-August is forecast