This blog post distills a week’s worth of Mid-South weather forecasts into a clear, field-tested briefing.
It highlights two main severe-weather opportunities this week (Friday and Monday), details the expected hazards, explains rainfall totals and drought conditions, and offers practical warnings-safety-tips-and-forecast/”>safety guidance to help residents stay prepared and informed as conditions evolve.
Two key severe-weather windows this week
Meteorologists are tracking a dipping jet stream that creates two separate chances for strong storms in the Mid-South.
Friday brings the first round of storms, while Monday poses the greater potential for widespread severe weather.
Between the storms, forecast models suggest mainly dry conditions with only spotty showers over the weekend.
Friday: first round of storms bringing damaging winds and hail
The initial storm round is expected Friday afternoon into the evening.
While the risk is greatest in southwestern parts (about a 2/5 severe-weather risk), Memphis and Shelby County face a lighter but still notable threat (around 1/5).
The primary hazards this day are damaging winds and hail as storms roll in from the west and move through the region overnight.
- Hazards: damaging winds, hail
- Timing: Friday afternoon to overnight
- Impact: potential for downed trees, power outages, and damaged siding or windows
Monday: a greater and more widespread risk
Monday features a westward-approaching line of storms that could bring more widespread rainfall and stronger severe weather.
The threat is higher overall, with all severe-weather types possible.
Residents should stay alert as storms may persist into the evening, and the line could produce damaging winds, hail, and even tornadoes under the right conditions.
- Severe-weather types: damaging winds, hail, tornadoes
- Timing: Monday afternoon and evening
- Preparedness tips: have extra batteries, charge devices, review shelter plans, and monitor updates closely
Rainfall outlook and drought status
Beyond thunderstorms, rainfall is a focal point for the region.
Forecasts indicate roughly 0.5 to 2 inches of rain across the Mid-South through Monday, with the heaviest totals expected on Monday.
This rainfall is much needed after a dry April in several locations, including Memphis.
Expected totals and drought changes
For Memphis, April rainfall has recorded only 0.81 inches so far, well below the typical near 6 inches for the month.
The contrast with normal conditions is driving concerns about drought impacts for local agriculture, water resources, and vegetation.
The latest drought-monitor update shows the drought intensifying to severe in Memphis and Shelby County, with expanding areas of extreme to exceptional drought in parts of the Mid-South.
- Memphis status: April rainfall far below average; drought intensifying
- Drought levels: severe in Memphis/Shelby County; areas of extreme to exceptional drought nearby
- Implications: higher evaporative demand, potential stress on crops and lawns, and increased fire risk in dry zones
Safety and staying informed
With two distinct severe-weather windows and ongoing drought concerns, staying informed is essential.
The best course is proactive preparation and constant monitoring as conditions develop.
- Monitor First Alert Weather updates for real-time warnings and alerts
- Download the weather app to receive instant notifications on your devices
- Have an emergency plan and a designated shelter area in your home or workplace
- Secure outdoor items and trim weak branches that could become projectiles in strong winds
Friday sets the stage for isolated to scattered severe storms with damaging winds and hail.
Monday could bring a more organized line of storms capable of stronger winds, hail, and tornadoes.
Modest rainfall totals are expected, which are much needed as drought continues to threaten the area.
Stay tuned to credible forecasts, heed warnings, and prepare now to reduce risk and stay safe as the weather evolves this week.
Here is the source article for this story: THE BREAKDOWN: 2 chances at severe weather next few days