This blog post analyzes a provocative forecast suggesting 2026 could host a powerful “super” El Niño, contrasts it with NOAA’s current outlook, and explores what such a scenario would mean for global weather and surfing conditions. It also notes that these ideas come from a Surfer article published on February 20, 2026, and places them in the context of evidence-based climate science.
Forecast at a glance: a potential super El Niño in 2026
El Niño development hinges on ocean–atmosphere interactions in the tropical Pacific. In this outlook, weather forecaster David Schlotthauer argues that persistent westerly wind bursts across the central and eastern Pacific, and into parts of the western Pacific, into early to mid-summer could push El Niño into a stronger phase that persists into fall and winter 2026.
He points to climate-model signals that, if borne out, would amplify global heat, heavy rainfall, and major disruptions to hurricane activity. Yet, the available data in early 2026 do not confirm such an outcome in the near term.
NOAA’s current climate prediction data show a more cautious pathway: a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral with about a 60% chance in February–April 2026. There is a likely persistence of ENSO-neutral through the Northern Hemisphere summer (roughly 56% probability for June–August 2026).
These probabilities indicate a cooler, more neutral scenario rather than a dramatic, near-term “super El Niño.”
Understanding the science and the uncertainty
El Niño arises when Pacific Ocean temperatures warm and influence global weather via atmospheric circulation. The claim of a “super” El Niño rests on the idea that sustained west-to-east wind bursts could strengthen ocean–atmosphere coupling beyond typical levels.
However, forecasts of ENSO amplitude are probabilistic and highly sensitive to model assumptions and real-time observations. Model ensembles can suggest a range of outcomes, and a few favorable runs do not guarantee a large-scale event in the real world.
Climate experts emphasize the substantial uncertainty that accompanies any forecast of this magnitude.
Implications for surfers and coastal weather
The Surfer article referenced in this discussion describes how such a scenario would affect surf conditions and regional weather patterns. While these surf-specific projections come from a forecasting source quoted in the piece, they illustrate the kinds of practical impacts that could accompany a stronger El Niño if model signals were to materialize.
- West Coast (summer): more hurricane swells, warmer local waters, and fewer southern-hemisphere swells during the summer season.
- East Coast (summer): potentially fewer hurricanes during the summer months.
- Hawaii (summer): more wind swell and fewer southern-hemisphere swells.
- Pacific Northwest (winter): lots of swell with comparatively less wind and rain overall.
- California (winter): warmer water with more swell, but increased wind and rain complexity.
- Hawaii (winter): more swell, wind, and rain potential.
NOAA’s stance: why the forecasts differ
From an official perspective, NOAA’s outlook does not support an imminent or extreme El Niño. The forecast window for the La Niña-to-ENSO-neutral transition sits at 60% for February–April 2026.
There is a continued tilt toward ENSO-neutral through the Northern Hemisphere summer, implying a roughly 56% chance for June–August 2026. This conservative forecast contrasts with dramatic predictions and underscores the importance of awaiting corroborating observations before concluding that a “super El Niño” is imminent.
What this means for monitoring and interpretation
Between bold prognostications and the latest data, scientists stress ongoing monitoring of ocean temperatures, wind patterns, and ensemble forecasts.
The divergence between a striking forecast and NOAA’s current probabilities highlights how rapidly ENSO understanding can evolve as new data become available.
For researchers and practitioners, the takeaway is clear: remain attentive to official updates and treat high-impact claims as hypotheses subject to revision.
While the notion of a super El Niño in 2026 makes for compelling reading, the present evidence vaults toward a more cautious outlook.
For surfers and coastal communities, staying tuned to NOAA updates and professional forecast guidance remains essential as the year unfolds.
Here is the source article for this story: ‘Super’ El Niño Threat Looms in 2026, Expert Warns of Extreme Weather (Video)