The Western Mediterranean faced an extraordinary burst of storm activity beginning in mid-January, with nine named storms hammering Spain, Portugal, and northern Morocco.
This blog synthesizes the human impacts—evacuations, fatalities, and reconstruction needs—and the latest scientific analysis of rainfall intensity and atmospheric circulation that link these events to broader climate-risk trends and adaptation needs.
Event overview: storms, impacts, and regional toll
Across the western Mediterranean, the sequence of storms brought heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and widespread flooding that overwhelmed infrastructure and prompted large-scale evacuations.
The regional toll varied by country but was consistently high in terms of disruption and resilience challenges.
Human toll and economic costs by country
- Spain: more than 12,400 evacuations, with damage affecting about 115,000 people in 19 villages in Sierra de Cádiz; government aid pledges exceed €8.78 billion from national and regional authorities.
- Portugal: Storm Kristin produced six fatalities, hurricane-force winds up to 202 km/h, electricity outages impacting roughly one million people, extensive structural damage, and a reconstruction package of about €3.5 billion.
- Northern Morocco: 43 deaths, roughly 300,000 displaced, 110,000 homes inundated, and a €280 million recovery plan; impacts aggravated by social vulnerability and informal settlements.
Scientific analysis: rainfall intensity and regional patterns
Researchers from multiple countries analyzed 1-day maximum rainfall (Rx1day) for two regions—Northern Portugal/Northwest Spain and Southern Portugal/Southwest Spain plus Northern Morocco.
They examined the circulation patterns tied to the storms.
The study reports region-wide return periods of Rx1day of about 5 years in the north and 40 years in the south.
Local spots recorded rainfall events exceeding 100-year returns.
Key findings: rainfall trends and model performance
- Observations since 1950 show increases in Rx1day intensity of roughly 29% in the northern region and 36% in the southern region; the North Atlantic Oscillation contributes an additional ~5% in the south.
- Climate models do not reproduce the observed southern trend and show a weaker modeled increase in the north, yielding a combined modeled intensity rise of about 11%.
Analysis of the 4 February 2026 circulation reveals the familiar North Atlantic dipole pattern, but stronger than usual.
Unusually unstable, moisture-rich conditions drove extreme winds and heavy rainfall across the region.
Implications for policy and adaptation
Policy recommendations
- Develop and align early warning systems with local hydrological risk profiles. This ensures timely protective actions.
- Improve integrated risk mapping that links rainfall extremes to flood pathways. Include land cover and urban drainage in the analysis.
- Adopt risk-informed land-use planning for better resilience. Invest in robust infrastructure designed to withstand intense rainfall and rapid riverine floods.
- Enhance cross-border coordination for Mediterranean storm events. Share data, forecasts, and rapid-response protocols.
- Strengthen climate services and community preparedness to boost adaptive capacity at local scales. Focus on reducing vulnerability in at-risk settlements.
Here is the source article for this story: Increasingly severe rainstorms put people and structures built on floodplains at risk