This post examines how climate change is already undermining Mozambique’s energy security and what practical steps are needed to protect the system. Drawing on recent findings, I outline the vulnerabilities of hydropower, the stakes for coal and gas exports, projected heat and precipitation extremes, and the policy and engineering measures necessary to build resilience.
Why Mozambique’s energy system is increasingly at risk
Mozambique relies on hydropower for more than 80% of its electricity, making the power sector highly sensitive to shifting rainfall patterns.
At the same time, coal and emerging LNG projects underpin the economy, so disruptions in energy supply have immediate social and fiscal consequences.
Hydropower vulnerability and projected declines
Hydropower capacity is especially exposed to both floods and prolonged dry spells.
If resilience measures are not implemented, models suggest the hydropower capacity factor could decline by 9–14% by the end of the century.
That decline would directly reduce available generation and increase reliance on thermal generation or costly imports.
Heat, drought and infrastructure stress
Rising temperatures will change the operational profile of the entire system.
The number of days above 35 °C is expected to double under a low‑emissions scenario and could add up to 65 hot days under a high‑emissions scenario.
Extreme heat reduces the efficiency of gas turbines and solar panels, accelerates degradation of transmission equipment, and raises peak demand.
All of these factors strain grid reliability and require additional capacity and reinforcement.
Economic implications: coal, gas and the move to diversify
Mozambique’s economies remain tightly linked to fossil fuel exports.
Coal alone contributed about 13% of GDP in 2023, and new offshore LNG projects are being designed to better withstand cyclones.
The government has committed to diversifying the power mix by adding 1 GW of solar and 0.5 GW of onshore wind by 2030.
Siting and design challenges for renewables
Deploying utility-scale solar and wind requires careful siting because flood-prone areas and drought-affected watershed regions can undermine project performance and lifespan.
Resilience must be embedded at the design stage: elevated mounting for solar arrays, flood-resistant substation design, and vegetation and erosion controls for wind farms.
Changing rainfall patterns and recent outages
Precipitation is projected to become more erratic: heavier rains during wet seasons and longer dry spells in dry months will intensify both floods and droughts.
These shifts have already caused significant outages — for example, floods in Maputo in 2023 and 2024 left tens of thousands without electricity, highlighting the systemic risk.
Practical resilience measures
To safeguard energy supply and economic stability, the International Energy Agency recommends a suite of actions.
A coordinated, multi‑sectoral plan is essential.
Conclusion: a comprehensive adaptation plan is non‑negotiable
Mozambique stands at a crossroads.
Hydropower’s dominance, the economic reliance on coal and gas, and the ambitious but necessary renewable targets require a unified response to climate risk.
A comprehensive adaptation plan covering infrastructure design, siting, financing and insurance is essential to preserve energy security and protect the economic gains of recent years.
Policymakers, developers and financiers must move quickly to implement resilient design standards, grid modernization and regional interconnection to keep the lights on in a warming world.
Here is the source article for this story: National Climate Resilience Assessment for Mozambique