This article summarizes a developing multi-day severe weather outbreak unfolding across the Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. The outbreak is driven by a dip in the jet stream and unusually warm, moist air.
Forecasters warn of large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes and flash flooding as the system persists into the weekend.
Driving forces behind the forecast
The forecast hinges on a trough in the jet stream that is steering storm systems eastward. Unseasonably warm temperatures are transporting moisture and atmospheric energy northward.
On Tuesday, reports included quarter-sized hail in parts of Iowa and Illinois. Damaging winds up to 75 mph were recorded in Ohio, western Pennsylvania and western New York.
This pattern sets the stage for a multi-day event with rising storm coverage and intensifying hazards.
Wednesday’s setup features a cold front that stalls over the Plains. Storms are expected to initiate along a dryline across southern and central Kansas, western Oklahoma and the Red River Valley in North Texas.
The NOAA Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 3-of-5 severe thunderstorm risk for the corridor. Activity is forecast between 3 and 6 p.m. CT with a potential for egg-sized hail.
As storms organize into a line, the primary threats are expected to shift toward damaging wind gusts. In some cells, strong EF-2+ tornadoes are possible.
Heavy rainfall will add a flash-flood risk, especially where moisture pools and storms train over one another.
Plains and Midwest: Wednesday through Friday
Across the Plains and into the Midwest, forecasters anticipate heavy rain, large hail and damaging winds. The greatest risks lie in the southern to central Plains and into the Red River Valley area as the front stalls.
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected. Localized rainfall totals could exceed half a foot in some locations by week’s end.
Flash-flood potential is high in eastern Kansas, western Missouri and northern Oklahoma. The system is expected to move into the Midwest on Thursday, reloading showers and thunderstorms over Chicago.
Another surge of severe weather is likely by Friday in parts of Kansas, Iowa, Missouri and northern Oklahoma. Substantial moisture and a robust jet-stream pattern mean a continued risk for severe weather, including large hail, damaging winds and the possibility of tornadoes.
- Egg-sized hail remains a possibility in the initial rounds along the dryline, particularly in southern and central Kansas and adjacent areas.
- As the system consolidates into a line, damaging wind gusts become the dominant threat, with storms capable of downing trees and causing power outages in vulnerable communities.
- There is a risk of strong EF-2+ tornadoes within the more organized cells, especially where wind shear and moisture align with nocturnal or late-afternoon heating.
- Heavy rainfall raises the flash-flood risk, notably in eastern Kansas, western Missouri and northern Oklahoma, where rainfall rates may outpace drainage in urban areas.
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic: weekend threats
The forecast also calls for repeated storm development along a warm front in the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic regions. These areas face a mix of hazards including large hail, damaging winds and periods of heavy rain through the weekend.
The warm, moist air pooled ahead of the front will help sustain intense convective activity. There is potential for localized severe weather outbreaks in multiple rounds.
What to monitor and how to stay prepared
Residents across the impacted regions should stay informed through local warnings and national outlets.
Key steps include checking hour-by-hour forecasts and recognizing when the SPC issues a further upgrade in risk.
Have a plan for shelter during severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes.
For communities prone to flooding, it’s important to monitor rainfall totals and high-precipitation bands that could trigger flash floods in urban and rural areas alike.
- Secure outdoor objects and ensure vehicles are in safe locations ahead of anticipated wind events.
- Keep emergency kits ready, including flashlights, batteries, and weather radios or smartphone alerts.
- Review family and workplace emergency plans, especially for those in flood-prone zones or with mobility considerations during severe weather.
Here is the source article for this story: Millions brace for days of rain, flooding as spring severe weather pattern kicks off across Plains, Central US