This blog post explains the latest developments on Hurricane Melissa, which rapidly intensified into a Category 3 storm and is threatening catastrophic flooding across the northern Caribbean.
I summarize the storm’s current position and strength, its likely evolution, impacts reported so far in Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and surrounding islands, and practical preparedness recommendations drawn from three decades of tropical cyclone experience.
Current status and why Melissa is significant
Late Saturday, Hurricane Melissa strengthened quickly to a major hurricane with sustained winds near 115 mph and a slow westward motion of about 3 mph.
The storm’s center was approximately 125 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. The U.S. National Hurricane Center warned Melissa could reach Category 4 intensity as it continues to organize.
What makes this event particularly dangerous is the combination of strong winds, extreme rainfall and slow movement.
Slow-moving hurricanes concentrate rainfall over the same areas for long periods, elevating the risk of life-threatening flash floods and landslides — a pattern already evident in reports from Jamaica and southern Hispaniola.
Rainfall, flooding and human impact
Forecasters have issued dire rainfall estimates: up to 25 inches in Jamaica and as much as 35 inches in parts of Haiti.
These totals overwhelm drainage systems and slope stability, raising the probability of catastrophic flooding and deadly landslides.
Already, governments and communities are feeling the consequences. Jamaica declared a hurricane warning, closed Kingston’s Norman Manley International Airport, and opened more than 650 shelters.
In Haiti, at least three fatalities and five injuries were reported, with widespread flooding and infrastructure damage including a destroyed bridge in Sainte-Suzanne.
The Dominican Republic reported one death, one missing person, and damage to over 200 homes, leaving dozens of communities isolated.
Cuba, the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos have also been placed on alert.
Why rapid intensification matters
Rapid intensification is a meteorological process where a tropical cyclone’s winds increase markedly over a short period.
It often occurs over very warm water with low wind shear and high moisture content — conditions present in the Caribbean this season.
Rapid strengthening compresses preparation timelines and requires communities to act quickly on official advisories.
For forecasters, predicting the timing and exact track of rapid intensification is challenging.
Small changes in steering currents or in the storm’s internal structure can alter landfall locations and timing, so continuous monitoring is essential.
Short-term outlook and likely track
As Melissa moves slowly westward, the greatest immediate threats are heavy rain and landslides across Jamaica and Hispaniola.
Midweek, eastern Cuba could see up to 12 inches of rain under a hurricane watch, while the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos may face tropical-storm to hurricane conditions early next week.
The storm’s future intensity and track will dictate whether impacts extend farther north into the Bahamas or recurvate into the open Atlantic.
Preparedness advice from 30 years of experience
When facing a fast-strengthening hurricane like Melissa, decisive actions save lives.
Based on decades of fieldwork and post-storm assessments, prioritize evacuation and life-safety measures ahead of property protection.
Post-storm recovery will require coordinated relief and infrastructure repair.
Attention to public health risks such as contaminated water is essential.
International support for Haiti and other hard-hit areas will likely be critical given the reported bridge collapses and community isolation.
Here is the source article for this story: Melissa grows into Category 3 hurricane while unleashing torrential rain in the north Caribbean