This article explains the latest developments regarding Hurricane Kiko as it moves across the Pacific toward the Hawaiian Islands. It covers why the storm is weakening and what impacts residents and visitors should still expect, particularly dangerous surf and rip currents along east-facing shores.
Current status and forecast for Hurricane Kiko
As of Sunday, the hurricane was reported about 635 miles (1,025 kilometers) east of Hilo on the Big Island. Forecasters from the National Hurricane Center in Miami expect the system to pass north of the main Hawaiian islands between Tuesday and Wednesday.
Movement is generally west-northwest at around 13 mph (20 kph). The centerline of the track projects a miss to the north rather than a direct landfall.
No coastal watches or warnings have been issued for Hawaii at this time. This reflects a decreasing likelihood of a direct impact.
Latest observations and intensity
On Sunday, maximum sustained winds were recorded at 110 mph (175 kph), down from 120 mph (195 kph) a day earlier. The NHC forecasts continued weakening as Kiko moves into an environment less favorable for maintaining hurricane-strength winds.
Why Kiko is losing strength
The primary reason for the weakening trend is the storm’s progression over cooler waters and into a less supportive atmospheric environment. Tropical cyclones are heat engines; they rely on warm sea surface temperatures and moist air to maintain intensity.
As Kiko tracks farther west, sea surface temperatures decline. Upper-level winds can introduce shear, both of which disrupt the storm’s inner core and lead to decreasing sustained winds and structural decay.
Role of ocean temperature and shear
Cooler sea surface temperatures reduce the energy available for convection and the maintenance of the eyewall. Wind shear can tilt and disorganize the circulation.
Together these factors explain the forecasted decline from major hurricane strength toward a weaker tropical cyclone before it approaches Hawaii.
Local effects to expect in Hawaii: surf, rip currents, and coastal impacts
Even with decreasing odds of direct landfall, Hawaiian shores will not be immune to Kiko’s influence. The storm will generate long-period swells that radiate westward, producing amplified surf on east-facing beaches.
Forecasters are warning of dangerous surf and rip currents, with waves expected to reach 10 to 15 feet (3 to 4.5 meters) in some locations. These conditions pose significant risk to beachgoers, surfers, and swimmers, particularly in exposed coastal areas.
Precautions for residents, visitors, and coastal managers
If you live in or are visiting Hawaii, consider the following safety measures:
As an ocean and atmospheric scientist with three decades of experience monitoring tropical cyclones, I emphasize that a reduced wind threat does not equal no threat.
The coastal and nearshore hazards—large waves, strong rip currents, and localized surf inundation—remain the primary risks when a hurricane passes north of an island chain like Hawaii.
Here is the source article for this story: Hurricane Kiko is weakening on a forecast path expected to take it north of Hawaii