Extreme Holiday Cold Forecast for Midwest and Northeast United States

This article explores the science behind the upcoming outbreak of extreme cold across large parts of the United States during the holiday season, with a particular focus on the Northeast and Midwest.

Drawing on current forecasts and long-term climate knowledge, we’ll examine what is driving this pattern—especially the role of the polar vortex—what specific regions can expect in terms of temperature and snowfall, and how these events fit into the broader context of winter weather in North America.

Table of Contents

Holiday Season Cold Snap: What Is Being Forecast?

Forecast guidance from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center points to a pronounced spell of below-normal temperatures stretching across a broad swath of the country.

This is not a routine cool-down; for many locations it will feel like a mid-winter blast arriving early in the season.

Regions Most Likely to Be Hit by Extreme Cold

The area of greatest concern extends from the northern interior of the United States eastward toward the Atlantic seaboard.

Climatologist Judah Cohen has noted that the most expansive region of likely extreme cold will stretch from the Canadian Plains all the way to the U.S. East Coast during the third week of December.

Based on current projections, affected regions include:

Northern Plains and Upper Midwest – Montana, the Dakotas, Minnesota, and neighboring states will likely experience the most intense cold.

Northeast – From upstate New York and New England down into parts of the Mid-Atlantic, temperatures will drop sharply below seasonal averages.

Central states as far south as Missouri – Although not as extreme as in the far north, this region is still forecast to be significantly colder than normal.

In many of these locations, forecast lows of 5 to 20 degrees below zero (Fahrenheit) are possible, especially from the northern Plains through the interior Northeast by Friday of the forecast period.

The Polar Vortex: Why Is It So Cold?

A key driver behind this cold surge is the polar vortex, a term that has entered popular conversation but is often misunderstood.

Understanding this feature helps clarify why the Arctic can “open the freezer door” on the mid-latitudes.

What the Polar Vortex Is—and Isn’t

The polar vortex is a large-scale, persistent area of low pressure and very cold air that resides high in the atmosphere around both poles.

It is a normal part of the climate system and tends to strengthen and expand during winter as the polar region cools and the temperature contrast with lower latitudes increases.

During certain patterns, the edge of the vortex becomes disturbed or displaced, allowing lobes of frigid Arctic air to spill southward.

In this case, one such lobe is forecast to penetrate deep into the continental United States, bringing a blast of cold from Montana to Maine and farther south into the central states.

Temperature Trends Through the Holiday Period

The most intense cold is expected toward the end of the workweek, with the potential for some locations to flirt with daily record lows.

From Brutal Lows to a Slight Moderation

The Weather Prediction Center anticipates that, although the cold will remain notable, the severity may ease somewhat over the weekend.

Residents should be prepared for:

Dangerously low wind chills in exposed northern areas.

Increased demand on heating systems and power grids.

Stress on transportation and infrastructure, especially in regions not accustomed to extreme cold.

Snowfall Outlook: A Widespread Winter Pattern

In addition to the cold, multiple storm systems are expected to bring a variety of wintry precipitation types, from lake-effect snow to coastal rain–snow mixes.

This will enhance travel disruptions during a critical holiday travel period.

Regional Snow Impacts Across the Country

Several distinct snow-producing mechanisms are at play:

Mid-Atlantic and New England: A system lifting northward from the Central Gulf Coast will transport moisture into the cold air mass, producing a mix of rain and snow. Higher elevations and interior regions are most likely to see accumulating snow, while coastal areas may experience more rain or a wintry mix.

Great Lakes: Ongoing lake effect snow—generated as cold air sweeps across the relatively warm lake waters—will continue into Thursday before tapering off by Friday. This can produce localized heavy snow bands with sharp gradients in snowfall over short distances.

Pacific Northwest and Northern/Central Rockies: A series of Pacific weather systems will bring rounds of rain at lower elevations and snow at higher altitudes. This will contribute to early-season snowpack in the mountainous West, a critical water resource for the coming year.

What This Pattern Means for December and Beyond

When we step back and look at the bigger picture, the forecast points toward a notably cold and snowy period across much of the U.S. during December.

While single events do not define long-term climate trends, they do illustrate the natural variability of the winter season in a continent-spanning nation.

From a preparedness standpoint, individuals and communities should treat this pattern as a reminder to:

Review winter safety plans for homes, schools, and workplaces.

Ensure adequate insulation, heating, and emergency supplies.

Monitor updates from authoritative sources such as the National Weather Service, local meteorologists, and emergency management agencies.

As this cold spell unfolds, we will continue to refine our understanding of how features like the polar vortex interact with broader atmospheric patterns.

For now, the message is clear: conditions across much of the United States will feel more like the heart of winter than the start of the holiday season.

Both extreme cold and widespread snowfall will shape day-to-day life in the weeks ahead.

Here is the source article for this story: Parts of the US could see ‘extreme’ cold during holiday season