This blog post explains the outlook for the 2025–26 winter in New York. It summarizes a generally mild seasonal forecast while highlighting why meteorologists still expect localized, intense snow events.
I review the background drivers — a weak La Niña, a changing Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, and a transient clipper system. These features can combine to produce heavy lake-effect snow in places like Buffalo, the Tug Hill Plateau, and western Oswego County.
Seasonal picture: mostly mild, with pockets of wild
The big-picture forecast for the U.S. 2025–26 winter leans toward above-average temperatures in many regions. Longstanding sources like the Old Farmer’s Almanac call this season “mostly mild — with pockets of wild.”
For New York State this means fewer prolonged cold spells overall. However, episodic intrusions of Arctic air can still set the stage for intense, short-lived snow events.
Why a mild winter does not preclude severe snow bands: Even when seasonal averages are warm, specific atmospheric setups can produce concentrated bursts of snow. For New York, that concentrated threat most often comes from lake-effect snowfall and fast-moving clipper systems that tap cold air from Canada.
Key climate drivers shaping 2025–26
Meteorologists are monitoring a weak La Niña this season. La Niña tends to nudge the jet stream northward, which can allow cold air to pool over upstate New York at times.
La Niña winters commonly leave the Great Lakes partially unfrozen late into winter. This creates a recipe for significant lake-effect snow when Arctic air streams across relatively warm lake surfaces.
Short-term trigger: clipper system and polar dynamics
In the near term, forecasters have identified a fast-moving clipper system coming down from Canada. These compact systems bring a quick punch of precipitation followed by a sharp cold front and gusty winds.
The sequence often begins with rain in lower elevations, then flips to snow as temperatures plummet behind the front. Complicating the picture is the current state of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO).
The easterly phase of the QBO is associated with a weakening of the polar vortex. This increases the probability of transient outbreaks of frigid air reaching mid-latitudes.
When that occurs coincident with open-lake conditions, localized heavy snowfall becomes more likely.
What to expect this week and where
The forecast for this week includes an initial period of rain and a sharp temperature drop on Wednesday with gusty winds. Subsequent development of lake-effect bands is expected downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario.
Areas most at risk for localized heavy totals — potentially up to a foot — include Buffalo, the Tug Hill Plateau, and parts of western Oswego County. Travel may become hazardous where snow bands set up due to blowing and drifting snow; however, widespread blizzard conditions are not expected.
Practical implications and preparation
Given the potential for short-lived but intense snowfall, local authorities and residents should prioritize situational readiness rather than seasonal alarm.
Below are practical steps to mitigate risk during episodic events.
- Monitor forecasts closely — lake-effect bands can intensify rapidly and shift location.
- Be ready for quick travel disruptions — have alternate routes and allow extra time for essential trips.
- Prepare winter kits — blankets, water, food, and charged devices in vehicles.
- Clear gutters and maintain heating systems — reduce secondary impacts from sudden cold snaps.
- Follow local advisories — targeted warnings will provide the best guidance for specific communities.
Here is the source article for this story: Snowpocalypse warning? Key weather patterns point to blizzard risk in New York