This blog post summarizes meteorologist Bob Van Dillen’s assessment of the Atlantic basin as the peak of hurricane season arrives. The combination of unusually warm ocean temperatures and variable atmospheric conditions makes this period especially dangerous.
Drawing on decades of experience in tropical meteorology, I’ll unpack the science behind potential rapid storm development. I will also highlight what forecasters are watching and outline practical preparedness steps for residents along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.
Current state of the Atlantic: why this peak matters
The Atlantic basin is entering its climatological peak for tropical development. This is the time of year when hurricanes are most likely to form and intensify.
Historically, this window produces the most dangerous and destructive storms. Current conditions are signaling an elevated risk.
Bob Van Dillen emphasized that even in the absence of active storms today, the environment across the basin remains primed for development. Forecast models are actively monitoring several areas where tropical waves and disturbances could organize if favorable atmospheric patterns persist.
Oceanic and atmospheric factors at play
Warm ocean temperatures are the primary fuel for tropical cyclones. Right now, sea surface temperatures across large parts of the Atlantic are running unusually warm.
Warmer water increases available heat energy and moisture. This can support stronger and faster intensification when a disturbance becomes organized.
At the same time, atmospheric conditions such as wind shear—the change in wind speed and direction with height—remain a critical control on whether storms can form and intensify. Low wind shear favors storm organization, while high shear can tear developing systems apart.
Van Dillen’s key point: the combination of warm waters and episodes of favorable shear creates an environment conducive to rapid development.
What forecasters are watching now
Operational forecast centers and model guidance are closely monitoring several tropical waves and regions of disturbed weather across the Atlantic and Caribbean. These model signals don’t guarantee cyclogenesis, but they indicate where conditions may become favorable over the next several days to two weeks.
From my 30 years in the field, I can say that models are indispensable but not infallible—small changes in the atmosphere can dramatically alter outcomes. That’s why continual monitoring and timely communication to the public are essential during the peak period.
Key indicators and model signals
Forecasters prioritize a set of indicators when assessing development potential. These include:
What coastal residents should do now
Van Dillen’s closing message is a familiar but vital one: stay vigilant and prepared. The peak of hurricane season can produce storms that intensify rapidly, leaving little time for last-minute preparation.
Practical preparation reduces risk. Below are focused, actionable steps every household should consider well before a storm threatens.
Practical steps to stay ready
Preparedness basics:
Here is the source article for this story: All quiet in Atlantic as peak of hurricane season arrives | Latest Weather Clips