This post summarizes the latest forecast from the Alabama Emergency Management Agency and national forecasters about an approaching weather system and the concurrent tropical threat in the Atlantic.
I explain when and where rain and thunderstorms are expected across Alabama. I outline the severe-weather risks including damaging winds and the possibility of isolated tornadoes. I also provide context on Tropical Storm Melissa’s projected intensity and track.
What to expect across Alabama this weekend
Rain will arrive in western Alabama around sunrise Sunday. It is forecast to spread statewide through the day, tapering off in eastern counties by Monday morning.
The southern half of the state is most likely to experience thunderstorms. Conditions Sunday afternoon and evening could support severe storms in parts of the southwest.
Forecasters emphasize that damaging wind gusts are the primary threat. There is also the potential for one or two tornadoes in the most vulnerable areas.
The severe-weather threat is tied to a warm front pushing inland from the Gulf of Mexico. Where that front hangs up will determine which communities face the highest risk.
Meteorologists are still uncertain how far north the front will extend. The delineation of the risk area could change as new observations and model runs come in.
How the warm front affects risk and uncertainty
The warm front acts as a focus for instability and wind shear—two ingredients needed for organized severe storms. Areas near and south of the front will likely see the greatest instability and therefore the highest probability of damaging winds and isolated tornadic cells.
Because frontal positions can shift several tens of miles with each model update, residents should monitor local forecasts and be prepared to adjust plans if the risk area moves.
Practical safety advice for Alabama residents
Given the evolving nature of the threat, it’s important to prepare now rather than wait for the first storm cell to arrive.
Below are concise, actionable steps you can take to stay safe and informed.
When to take action
If a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning is issued for your area, take immediate shelter—don’t wait to see the storm.
Move to an interior room on the lowest floor, away from windows. If you are outdoors or in a mobile vehicle, seek sturdy shelter immediately.
Tropical Storm Melissa: not a threat to Alabama
Meanwhile, in the tropics, Tropical Storm Melissa is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Saturday. It could become a major hurricane with sustained winds of 130–145 mph by Sunday.
Fortunately for Alabama, forecast models show Melissa turning north or northeast by Tuesday. The storm is expected to move into the open Atlantic later in the week.
At present, Melissa is not expected to pose a direct threat to Alabama’s coastline.
Even though Melissa is projected to remain offshore, it’s wise for coastal residents to stay informed. Tropical systems can affect surf, rip currents, and local weather patterns even when they remain at sea.
Here is the source article for this story: Severe Weather Alert: Rain and Storms Forecast for Alabama