What you’ll read here: A concise, expert analysis of a groundbreaking study showing how the climate crisis is increasingly disrupting democratic processes by shaping when and how people vote.
The findings demonstrate that extreme weather events—from floods and heatwaves to wildfires—are not just humanitarian challenges but electoral ones, affecting infrastructure, voter turnout, and even ballot counting.
Below, we unpack the global scope, regional hot spots, and the practical steps electoral authorities can take to safeguard the integrity of elections in a warming world.
Climate disruption is reshaping elections
Over the past two decades, researchers document that climate-related impacts have touched at least 94 elections and referendums in 52 countries, with 2024 marking a notable surge as 23 elections across 18 countries were disrupted.
These disruptions ranged from damaged infrastructure to displaced voters and last-minute changes to voting plans, underscoring the way weather hazards intersect with democratic processes.
The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) produced the first global study of its kind, highlighting how natural hazards elevate pressure on fragile democracies—particularly in Africa and Asia.
Global findings at a glance
Key points from the study reveal that climate hazards are not isolated incidents but recurring threats to electoral timelines and logistics.
The analysis points to:
- In 2024 alone, 23 elections were disrupted by climate-related events across 18 countries, with impacts ranging from infrastructure damage to disrupted vote counting.
- Heatwaves have increasingly interfered with voting, affecting at least 10 elections since 2022.
- Megacities face unique vulnerabilities — for example, Lagos now experiences 89 days per year with temperatures well above historical norms.
- Illustrative incidents include Mozambique’s 2019 election disrupted by Cyclone Idai and Senegal’s 2024 parliamentary vote, where floods required firefighters to assist observers.
- Even countries with robust institutions face challenges, such as the Philippines, where a recent general election saw vote-counting machines overheat and strain ballot handling.
Regional hotspots and notable case studies
The findings highlight that regional patterns matter: flood-prone corridors, heat-stressed megacities, and areas with limited disaster-response capacity are disproportionately affected.
These trends threaten not only turnout but the perceived legitimacy of elections when results are delayed or ballots are compromised.
Illustrative examples
- Mozambique (2019) — Cyclone Idai submerged critical infrastructure and altered electoral outcomes in known vulnerable districts.
- Senegal (2024) — Flooding during the parliamentary vote necessitated firefighters’ involvement in observer support and logistics.
- Philippines — Heat and equipment stress during a national election affected the counting process and ballot handling.
- Lagos — A growing heat burden demonstrates how city-scale warming can impair polling operations and voter comfort.
Strategies to protect elections from climate risks
Experts argue that proactive planning and close coordination with weather and disaster agencies are essential to maintain voting access and integrity as hazards rise.
The report recommends that electoral authorities rethink timelines and adopt climate-aware practices to ensure resilience in the face of predictable disasters.
Practical steps for authorities
- Schedule elections outside predictable climate risk periods whenever feasible to minimize disruption.
- Align planning with meteorological services, environmental agencies, and disaster-relief organizations for early hazard warnings and rapid response.
- Invest in disaster-risk management training for election staff to improve on-site decision-making under pressure.
- Develop contingency plans that cover power outages, transport disruptions, and mandatory evacuations without compromising vote safety or access.
- Enhance voter outreach and alternative voting options to reduce turnout volatility during emergencies.
Here is the source article for this story: Heatwaves, floods and wildfires pose rising threat to democracy, report finds