Severe thunderstorms are forecast to sweep across the Plains and Midwest from this weekend into the following week. Hazards include tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.
This blog distills the official outlook into an accessible briefing. It covers where and when storms may form, why this pattern is repeating across several days, and what residents, travelers, and communities should do to stay safe and prepared.
Forecast Overview
Forecasters expect episodes of intense convection to roll through the region as a persistent weather pattern takes hold. The greatest concentration of risk will be in western Texas and extreme eastern New Mexico on Saturday.
Clustering storms in these areas are capable of large hail and strong wind gusts. Repeated rounds of heavy rain are possible across the Plains and Midwest, setting the stage for flash flooding even as drought persists in many areas.
Tornadoes are possible where supercells develop, particularly in the Southern Plains to the upper Midwest across successive days.
Weekend Threats: Saturday through Sunday
Saturday’s biggest threats are centered on western Texas and extreme eastern New Mexico. Storm clusters may produce large hail and gusty winds that could cause damage to property and power lines.
Southern Minnesota also faces a heightened risk for stronger storms. Hail, damaging winds, and the potential for isolated tornadoes are possible if notable supercells form.
Sunday will bring scattered severe storms from the Southern Plains into the upper Midwest. The tornado risk remains if robust supercells develop.
Forecasters emphasize that a few storms could organize into clusters capable of producing significant wind and hail events.
Midweek Outlook: Monday through Wednesday
On Monday, expect continued scattered severe activity from the Southern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. The pattern suggests less predictability than a single-day outbreak, with several pockets of storms possible rather than a single, continuous line.
Tuesday could become more active, with more widespread severe thunderstorms stretching from Texas into the Midwest. Hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all within the realm of possibility as moisture and instability interact with a slow-moving jet stream trough.
Wednesday looks likely to carry at least scattered severe storms from parts of Texas to the mid-Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes. The potential for lingering threats into late next week remains as the same favorable setup persists.
Flooding and Hydrological Impacts
Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall over several days could trigger flash flooding in parts of the Plains and Midwest. This risk remains present even as ongoing drought conditions persist in much of the Plains.
This illustrates the complex interplay between dry soils and a rainfall surplus in short bursts.
Understanding the Weather Pattern
Two key ingredients are driving this forecast: a ridge of high pressure along the eastern U.S. that funnels Gulf moisture northward, and a southward-plunging jet stream trough moving across the West and pivoting into the Central Plains.
This setup fosters multiple rounds of convective activity across overlapping regions. Because the high pressure remains relatively stationary and the trough departs slowly, many of the same corridors may face repeated severe-weather threats over successive days.
This increases the need for ongoing vigilance and preparedness.
Meteorological Drivers Explained
The ridge acts like a northward moisture conveyor, lifting tropical air into the Plains and Midwest, where it meets surface boundaries and destabilized air masses.
The trough, digging southward from the West, provides the lift and wind shear that organize storms into supercells capable of producing tornadoes and large hail.
As these features linger and shift only gradually, forecasters anticipate a multi-day pattern rather than a single weather event.
This elevates the potential for consecutive rounds of severe weather across similar geographies, complicating planning for communities and emergency managers.
Practical Guidance for Preparedness
- Monitor local forecasts and warnings daily as conditions can evolve quickly.
- Have a family emergency plan and a weather radio to receive alerts even if power is out.
- Secure loose outdoor items and protect vehicles from strong winds and hail damage.
- Know your shelter locations—basement or interior rooms away from windows are preferred during a tornado warning.
- Agriculture and livestock planning should account for rapid weather changes and potential flood scenarios on low-lying properties.
Here is the source article for this story: Severe Weather, Including Tornadoes, Ramps Up In Plains This Weekend, Spreads To Midwest Next Week