This post explains the latest meteorological situation following two destructive typhoons that hit the Philippines, and why forecasters are warning of additional storm risks tied to the current La Niña pattern.
I summarize the science behind higher storm likelihood, outline regional vulnerabilities, and offer practical considerations for communities and emergency planners.
Why recent typhoons raise concern: the link to La Niña
In recent days the Philippines suffered severe impacts from Typhoon Kalmaegi and Super Typhoon Fung-wong, which together have killed more than 250 people and displaced over a million residents on Luzon, the country’s primary island.
With massive damage already incurred, meteorologists are cautioning that the archipelago may not be done with tropical impacts for 2025.
Jason Nicholls, lead international forecaster at AccuWeather, has warned the Philippines could still see one or two more tropical impacts before the end of the year.
The elevated risk is linked to the current phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) known as La Niña, a large-scale cooling of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures that affects atmospheric circulation and storm behavior worldwide.
How La Niña influences tropical storms
La Niña typically reduces vertical wind shear over parts of the tropics.
Less wind shear allows nascent tropical disturbances to organize and intensify more readily into hurricanes, typhoons, or cyclones.
In plain terms: calmer winds aloft give storms a better environment to grow.
Dr. Samantha Burgess of the Copernicus Climate Change Service notes that La Niña years often produce longer and more active storm seasons globally.
We saw a manifestation of this pattern earlier in the year with Hurricane Melissa’s severe impacts on Jamaica and parts of the Caribbean.
Although the Atlantic basin has quieted since then, attention has shifted to the western Pacific and the Indo-Pacific region.
Regional impacts and why risk remains despite a mild event
Historically, La Niña favors heavier rainfall and increased tropical cyclone activity in regions such as eastern Australia, the wider Indo-Pacific, southern Africa, and some areas of South America.
The current La Niña, however, is described by climate scientists as relatively mild and likely short-lived, with only slightly below-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.
Even a weak La Niña can tip the atmospheric scales locally and produce significant impacts, especially where communities are already vulnerable due to topography, population density, or damaged infrastructure after recent storms.
Practical implications for preparedness
From three decades of observing how storms and climate patterns interact, I emphasize that preparedness and early action save lives.
Consider these priority actions:
Scientists remain uncertain about why this La Niña event is weaker than some past episodes. That uncertainty underscores the need for robust surveillance and flexible emergency plans.
Even a short-lived event can compound losses if it arrives when communities are already weakened from prior storms.
Here is the source article for this story: La Nina could bring more deadly hurricanes to South East Asia, scientists warn