Thanksgiving in Tennessee really keeps you guessing. Mornings can start out crisp in the 30s, but afternoons sometimes warm up into the 60s.
Most years, daytime temperatures land in the upper 40s to low 60s, though some Thanksgivings have surprised folks with balmy 70s—or, on the flip side, a cold snap and even a touch of snow. Planning a holiday trip here can feel like a gamble, but honestly, that’s part of the fun.
One year, you might wake up to sunshine. The next, you could get chilly rain—location makes a big difference.
The mountains tend to run cooler, sometimes with light snow. Cities like Nashville and Memphis usually stay milder, though they’re not immune to a sudden cold blast.
Fall colors linger, but the unpredictable weather means you should check the forecast before packing your bags.
Thanksgiving week sits right between Tennessee’s colorful fall and the start of winter. This time of year brings a higher chance of rain, shorter days, and cooler evenings.
Whether you’re hiking in the Smokies, driving to see family, or wandering through a downtown festival, the weather can shape your plans.
Typical Thanksgiving Weather in Tennessee
Thanksgiving in Tennessee usually means cool days and chilly nights. Most places see a mix of mild afternoons and colder evenings, and the weather can flip suddenly depending on your location.
Average Daytime and Nighttime Temperatures
Late November daytime highs in Tennessee often hit the upper 40s to low 60s (°F). Western Tennessee gets more of those warmer afternoons, while the east tends to cool off faster.
At night, temperatures drop into the 30s and 40s (°F). Rural areas and higher elevations can see frost, so layers are pretty much a must.
Snow doesn’t show up much in most of Tennessee during November, but light flurries sometimes dust the mountains. Lower areas get more rain than snow, which can make evenings feel even colder.
Weather Variability and Extremes
Thanksgiving weather in Tennessee really runs the gamut. Some years, you get calm, sunny afternoons; other years, it’s cold rain or even some early snow in certain spots.
Temperature swings happen a lot. One year, you might enjoy highs near 65°F, and the next, you’re stuck in the 40s.
Strong cold fronts can sweep through and change things in just a day.
Rainfall is another thing to keep an eye on. November isn’t the absolute wettest month, but showers are pretty frequent.
A storm system rolling in around Thanksgiving can bring steady rain, gusty winds, and a quick temperature drop.
Regional Differences Across the State
Weather shifts a lot depending on where you spend Thanksgiving. In West Tennessee—think Memphis—the climate stays milder, with warmer afternoons and more rain than snow.
Middle Tennessee, with places like Nashville, gets the most unpredictable weather. One year could be sunny and comfy, the next, cold and wet.
Temperatures here usually land between the warmer west and the cooler east.
In East Tennessee, including Knoxville and the Smokies, chilly air settles in more often. Mountain areas pick up snow or ice now and then, while valleys stay cool and damp.
If you’re traveling across Tennessee, expect these differences. Even a short drive can mean a big change in temperature and rain.
Chance of Rain and Precipitation Patterns
Late November in Tennessee tends to be cool and damp, with a moderate shot at rain. Skies often stay partly cloudy, and wet days are common enough to make you want to pack a rain jacket if you’ll be outside.
Average Rainfall in Late November
By the time Thanksgiving rolls around, Tennessee usually picks up 3.5 to 4.0 inches of rain for the month, though it varies by city.
Nashville averages about 3.9 inches, Memphis is closer to 4.4 inches, and Knoxville sits around 3.5 to 4.0 inches.
This is pretty typical for fall, putting November among the wetter months of the year.
Most of the rain comes in steady showers, not big storms, though a passing cold front can dump a lot in a hurry.
You can expect rain on several days during Thanksgiving week. Central and western parts—Nashville and Memphis, for example—often see a bit more than the eastern valleys.
Frequency of Wet Days
Late November brings about 8 to 9 days with measurable precipitation in Tennessee. Nashville and Memphis typically get 8 to 8.5 wet days, while Knoxville hits around 9 days.
So, roughly a third of November days bring some rain. Most of it is light to moderate, and you might get a few dry days in between.
If you have travel plans or outdoor gatherings, count on damp ground and the occasional rain interruption. It’s not the rainiest time of year, but it’s wet enough that carrying an umbrella is just smart.
Cloud Cover and Sunshine
Clouds roll in more often during late November, with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies on over half the days. Nashville gets clear or mostly clear skies about 47% of the time, and Memphis and Knoxville are pretty similar.
Daylight drops to about 10 hours per day, so even sunny days feel a bit short. Combined with the cooler air, the vibe is a lot more subdued than in summer or early fall.
Don’t expect long stretches of blue sky. Instead, you’ll catch brief flashes of sunshine between clouds and showers, giving you short windows of nice weather.
Snowfall Probability Around Thanksgiving
Snow in Tennessee at Thanksgiving is rare, but not totally out of the question. Where you are matters—a lot. Elevation and local climate play the biggest roles.
Some years, it’s just cold rain, but every now and then, Thanksgiving brings a surprise dusting.
Historical Snow Events
In Tennessee’s lower elevations, measurable snow near Thanksgiving doesn’t happen much. Most years, daytime temps stay in the 40s or 50s, making snow unlikely.
Still, Knoxville and Nashville have seen the occasional late-November flurry, though it rarely adds up to more than an inch. Usually, it melts fast because the ground is still warm.
The biggest late November snowfalls have come from strong cold fronts or early winter storms. When those line up with colder air, parts of Tennessee have picked up measurable snow—especially in the north and east.
These events don’t happen often, but people remember them when they do.
Likelihood of Snow in Different Regions
Snow chances around Thanksgiving jump around the state. In West Tennessee (Memphis and nearby), odds are pretty low.
Daytime highs stay too warm, and most precipitation falls as rain.
In Middle Tennessee (including Nashville), the chances go up a bit, but still not much. Flurries can happen, but real snow is rare.
Records show less than 10% of Thanksgivings here have any snow at all.
East Tennessee, especially near the Smokies, gets the best shot. Cooler air reaches this region more easily, and light snow happens more often.
Even so, you shouldn’t count on snow every year.
Snow in Higher Elevations
If you’re hoping for a white Thanksgiving, your best bet is the Great Smoky Mountains. Elevations above 4,000 feet run 10–15°F cooler than the valleys.
That extra chill means snow can fall earlier here.
Places like Newfound Gap or Clingmans Dome often see measurable snow by late November. National Park Service records show snow depths of several inches are possible during early storms.
If you’re heading into the Smokies, plan for ice and snow. Roads like Newfound Gap Road might close temporarily when conditions get rough.
For this part of Tennessee, a white Thanksgiving is definitely on the table.
Comparing Thanksgiving Weather to January in Tennessee
Thanksgiving in Tennessee feels cool and changeable, while January settles into a colder, more predictable winter pattern. The biggest differences show up in temperature and the odds of snow or ice.
Temperature Differences
Late November temperatures in Tennessee usually fall between the upper 40s and mid-60s °F during the day. Evenings dip into the 30s or 40s.
Some years bring mild afternoons, while others catch a cold snap, especially in Middle and East Tennessee.
By January, winter takes over. Average highs drop to 40–50 °F, and lows often hit the 20s or 30s. The Smokies can even see nighttime temps in the teens.
So, Thanksgiving might call for a light jacket, but January means you’ll want a heavy coat, gloves, and layers. If you’re planning outdoor stuff, get ready for much colder mornings and longer stretches of chilly air in January.
Quick Comparison
| Month | Avg High °F | Avg Low °F | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thanksgiving (Nov) | 50–65 | 30–45 | Variable, milder days possible |
| January | 40–50 | 20–35 | Coldest month, frequent frosts |
Precipitation and Snowfall Comparison
Rain falls often in both late November and January, but it comes in different forms. Around Thanksgiving, you’re mostly looking at light to moderate rain, with snow rare except in the higher elevations.
Roads usually stay clear and travel disruptions are uncommon.
In January, precipitation turns wintry more often. Rain still happens, but cold spells can bring snow, sleet, or freezing rain—especially in East Tennessee and the Cumberland Plateau.
The Smokies might see several inches of snow at once.
Average January snowfall ranges from 1–2 inches in West Tennessee to 4–6 inches in East Tennessee’s valleys, with even more in the mountains.
By comparison, November snow is pretty uncommon outside the highest spots.
So, January travel could mean icy roads, while Thanksgiving usually just brings rain and chilly air.
What to Pack for Thanksgiving Visits
Late November in Tennessee brings cool days, chilly nights, and the possibility of sudden weather changes. You’ll want to be ready for both mild afternoons and cold evenings, especially if you’re spending time outside.
Clothing Recommendations
Pack clothes you can layer. Days might reach the upper 50s or low 60s °F, while nights often slip into the 30s or 40s °F.
A layering system is your friend for comfort all day.
- Base layers: Long-sleeve shirts or light thermals
- Mid layers: Fleece or sweaters
- Outer layers: A medium-weight jacket or coat
Bring comfortable walking shoes if you plan to explore towns or trails. Waterproof shoes or boots help if rain or wet ground shows up.
Don’t forget accessories like gloves, hats, and scarves. The daytime might feel fine, but mountain evenings can get cold fast.
If you’re eating out for the holiday, it’s nice to have a dressier outfit handy too.
Preparing for Unpredictable Weather
Thanksgiving weather in Tennessee really keeps you on your toes. One day might be sunny and pleasant, but the next could bring rain or even snow in the higher elevations.
It’s best to pack for flexibility instead of banking on just one type of clothing.
A light rain jacket or poncho comes in handy, since November showers happen more often than you’d think. If you’re heading to the Smoky Mountains, you’ll probably want a heavier coat, because it gets colder and windier up there compared to the towns below.
I always toss a small daypack in the car to carry layers. It’s just easier to add or shed clothes as the weather flips back and forth.
Keep an umbrella and some packable warm gear in your bag, so you don’t get surprised by sudden changes.
Outdoor Activities and Travel Tips
Most years, Thanksgiving in Tennessee brings mild to cool weather. Daytime highs usually land somewhere in the 50s or 60s °F.
You can still enjoy outdoor recreation, but it’s smart to keep an eye on changing road and travel conditions.
Best Activities for the Season
Tennessee’s crisp fall air and colorful landscapes make this time of year pretty special. The Great Smoky Mountains always draw a crowd, and trails like Laurel Falls or Cades Cove Loop offer easy hikes and scenic drives.
You’ll spot more wildlife, and the views usually get clearer once the leaves are gone.
If you’re more into city life, Nashville and Memphis put on plenty of seasonal events and music shows. Outdoor markets and light displays start popping up in late November, so there’s always something to do.
You get to enjoy the cooler weather without having to bundle up in heavy winter gear.
Fishing’s a solid option too. Many lakes and rivers stay open, and anglers often enjoy calmer water with fewer people around after the fall foliage crowds leave.
Families might prefer parks and historic sites for walking or picnicking. Usually, a light jacket does the trick during the day, but evenings can dip into the 30s or 40s °F.
Travel Considerations and Road Conditions
Weather in late November can shift fast, so pack for rain and chilly nights. You’ll probably run into light showers, especially if you’re in Middle or East Tennessee.
Bring some rain gear and check the forecast before you leave. Trust me, it’s better to be ready than caught off guard.
Mountain mornings sometimes get pretty foggy, which can make driving tricky. If you’re heading through the Smokies, leave yourself extra time and don’t forget to turn on your headlights, even when it’s daytime.
You probably won’t see snow yet on interstates or main highways, but watch out for slick spots from wet leaves on back roads. Give yourself more space when you’re winding through rural areas.
Traffic picks up a lot around Thanksgiving. Try to travel outside the busiest hours, and if you’re staying near a popular spot, book your lodging early. That way, you’ll have more time to actually enjoy the season instead of stressing about the crowds.