The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has released its latest seasonal outlook, indicating a likely shift from the current weak La Niña phase toward neutral conditions. There is a possibility of transitioning into El Niño by the end of 2026.
The forecast outlines probabilities for different seasonal windows and highlights El Niño’s strong influence on global temperatures. These natural climate oscillations occur alongside long-term human-caused warming.
This article breaks down what the WMO and U.S. NOAA projects mean for weather, temperatures, and planning across sectors such as agriculture, health, energy, and water management.
What the forecast means for the coming seasons
Forecast probabilities from the WMO suggest a shifting pattern in the near term, with a tilt toward neutral conditions in the next few seasons and a non-negligible chance of El Niño emerging later.
The central numbers are as follows:
- March–May: 60% neutral, 30% La Niña, 10% El Niño
- April–June: 70% neutral
- May–July: 60% neutral, 40% El Niño
Beyond these, the NOAA outlook places a 50–60% chance of El Niño developing during July–September and continuing into the following seasons.
El Niño’s imprint on global temperatures
El Niño events are the single strongest natural source of year-to-year variability in global surface temperatures.
The WMO notes that the recent strong El Niño of 2023–24 was among the five strongest on record and played a key role in driving record high temperatures in 2024.
2023 was the second-hottest year on record, followed by 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded.
These temperature extremes occur atop widespread, long-term human-induced warming, which intensifies extreme weather and disrupts traditional seasonal patterns.
Weather patterns and rainfall outlook
The WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Update paints a clear picture of what to expect in the near term: a broad signal for above-average land surface temperatures during March–May, coupled with mixed rainfall signals.
While some regions may experience wetter or drier conditions, the persistence of La Niña-like patterns in the equatorial Pacific continues to influence rainfall distribution globally.
This adds complexity to drought risk and flood potential in vulnerable areas.
Implications for climate-sensitive sectors
Forecasts like these are essential for planning in sectors that are highly sensitive to weather and climate variability.
This means organizations and governments should prepare for a mix of scenarios, from heat spells to shifting rainfall.
Key implications include:
- Agriculture: adjusted planting schedules, water allocations, and crop choices to cope with warmer conditions and variable rainfall.
- Health: heat risk management, vector-borne disease monitoring, and emergency response capacity planning in hotter years.
- Energy: cooling demand planning, transmission resilience, and hydroelectric variability in wetter or drier seasons.
- Water management: storage optimization, flood risk assessment, and drought contingency planning in light of evolving precipitation patterns.
- Disaster-risk management: improved preparedness for extreme weather events driven by higher temperatures and shifting seasonal cycles.
What experts say and how monitoring informs action
WMO head Celeste Saulo emphasizes that international meteorological communities will closely monitor conditions to inform decision-making and support humanitarian and disaster-risk management.
Continuous analysis and transparent communication are essential to help policymakers, farmers, health officials, and emergency responders translate forecast signals into timely actions.
While forecasts provide probabilistic guidance rather than certainties, they offer a critical framework for resilience planning.
This is especially important in regions prone to heat waves, droughts, and severe storms.
Here is the source article for this story: Warming El Nino May Return Later This Year: UN