This blog post summarizes the evolving active weather pattern across the United States this week. It explains the increased risk of heavy rain, flash flooding, and a late-November cold push tied to a Polar Vortex disruption.
As a meteorologist with three decades of experience, I’ll break down the meteorological drivers and regional impacts. The focus will be on the southern Plains and California, with practical safety and travel considerations for Thanksgiving.
Active weather pattern: what’s driving the change
Large-scale atmospheric dynamics are aligning to produce enhanced moisture transport and cooling at upper levels. A persistent atmospheric river is slamming the West Coast.
Abundant Gulf moisture streams into the southern Plains, creating a ripe environment for heavy rainfall and flooding. At the same time, a perturbation to the Polar Vortex is expected to allow colder air to surge southward.
This could usher in a significant temperature drop just ahead of the holiday weekend. The combination of these features creates a multi-hazard scenario: hydrological stress in saturated areas and cold impacts that could disrupt travel and outdoor plans.
Southern Plains: flash flood threat and timing
Meteorologists are forecasting a Level 1 flash flood threat for parts of the southern Plains as moisture ramps up through midweek. Localized training of heavy showers and thunderstorms over saturated basins can produce sudden flooding.
Key concerns include rapid runoff on streets and highways and overwhelmed drainage systems. Rises in small streams and creeks are also possible.
Residents should be prepared for quick changes in conditions. Have a plan to avoid flooded roadways.
California’s persistent atmospheric river and secondary risks
California remains under the influence of a persistent atmospheric river, a narrow corridor of concentrated moisture that can deliver long-duration heavy rain. Soil moisture across foothills and burn-scar areas is already elevated from prior storms.
That pre-existing saturation increases the risk of mudslides and debris flows, particularly below recent wildfire scars. Travel disruption is likely on mountain passes and smaller roads susceptible to washouts or debris.
Practical guidance for Californians
Preparation is essential when heavy rain and unstable slopes coincide. Local authorities may issue evacuation orders or close roads without much notice.
Be ready to act quickly and heed official instructions.
Polar Vortex disruption: chilly Thanksgiving implications
Forecasters are tracking a disruption in the Polar Vortex that could funnel colder air into the lower 48 states. This pattern shift may drive temperatures well below average in some regions just in time for Thanksgiving.
Temperatures falling quickly can turn rain to snow or freezing rain in colder sectors. This creates icy travel surfaces and may affect both road and air travel.
Travel and safety considerations for the holiday
Plan ahead if you are traveling over Thanksgiving. Give yourself extra time.
Check airline and road conditions. Prepare for weather-related delays.
Monitor trusted sources for the latest updates. Keep an eye on national and local weather services and media briefings for timely warnings and safety information.
Here is the source article for this story: FOX Weather Team discuses ‘next big thing’ in weather around the country | Latest Weather Clips