This blog post explains a recent scientific study showing that extreme rainfall events—like the downpour that triggered the tragic Carmont train crash in Scotland five years ago—are becoming more likely as the world warms.
I outline the key findings, explain how researchers reached their conclusions, examine the implications for infrastructure and public safety in the UK, and offer practical steps policymakers and engineers should consider to reduce future risk.
New analysis ties intense downpours to a warming climate
The joint University of Edinburgh and Met Office study used weather radar records and climate models to quantify how warming has altered rainfall intensity and frequency across the UK.
Their conclusion is stark: extreme short-duration rainfall events are already more likely because of human-driven temperature increases.
Key findings from the study
Researchers found that, under current conditions, intense downpours similar to those on the morning of the Carmont derailment are 15–20 per cent more probable than they would have been in a pre-industrial climate.
The study also quantified risk if warming continues: at global temperature rises exceeding two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the probability of such events could grow by 30–40 per cent.
These figures are rooted in a careful comparison of observed radar-based rain totals and multiple climate model simulations that isolate the human contribution to warming.
The event that produced the Carmont disaster involved a major rainfall episode followed by another intense downpour roughly an hour before the train derailed—conditions that can overwhelm drainage and trackside protections.
Why the Carmont crash matters beyond the tragedy
The Carmont crash was not caused by rain alone.
Investigations found gravel washed onto the tracks after prolonged heavy rain, an improperly constructed drain that could not cope with the volume of water, and operational shortcomings that together created a fatal pathway from weather to disaster.
Infrastructure vulnerabilities revealed
This incident—and the study that links similar events to climate change—reveals systemic vulnerabilities: many elements of transport and urban infrastructure were designed to historical rainfall statistics that no longer reflect current or future conditions.
Flash floods concentrated in short time windows pose a particular threat to railway embankments, culverts, road drainage, and urban stormwater systems.
What we should do next
We must continue to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit further warming.
We also need immediate, practical measures to protect people and transport networks.
Practical recommendations
Practical steps include updating design standards for drainage and embankments to reflect current climate projections. Implementing real-time monitoring of vulnerable corridors and improving cross-agency operational protocols for severe-weather responses are also important.
Investments in nature-based solutions—such as upstream floodplain restoration—can reduce downstream runoff peaks.
Here is the source article for this story: Rainfall linked to train crash more likely due to climate change