This article summarizes European avalanche patterns, the forces that drive them, and what it means for winter recreation and safety.
Drawing on recent data and expert analysis, it explains how snowpack structure, slope geometry, and weather interact to trigger slides. It also discusses how human behavior shapes risk and how climate change could alter future avalanche dynamics.
What the latest European avalanche data tell us
Avalanches claim about 100 people in Europe each year. The likelihood of a deadly slide depends on the structure of the snow, the slope angle, and recent weather.
The majority of risk arises from participants triggering slides rather than completely natural avalanches, though naturally occurring events still contribute. Early-season limited snowfall can create persistent weak layers within the snowpack; once buried by later snowfall, these layers become highly unstable and prone to human triggering.
Despite rising off‑track and ski‑tour activity, European avalanche fatalities have largely remained steady or declined slightly over recent years. Improved warnings, safety equipment, and faster rescues have contributed to this trend.
By mid‑February 2026, European Avalanche Warning Services recorded 99 avalanche deaths for the season. This underscores ongoing risk across mountain environments.
Key factors driving avalanche risk
The risk landscape is shaped by a few core factors that forecasters continually assess:
- Snowpack stratigraphy and the presence of weak layers that can fail under stress.
- Slope angle, with steeper terrains more prone to rapid release and larger slides.
- Weather conditions, including storms, temperature fluctuations, and wind loading that create unstable zones.
- Human triggers, such as skiers and snowboarders traversing or stopping on sensitive slopes.
Warnings and forecasting play a central role in risk assessment. Awareness and behavior in the backcountry remain critical variables for safety outcomes.
Seasonal patterns and human behavior
Early-season snowfall often does not bond well with later snow, creating weak layers that can catastrophically fail under modest additional loading. A large portion of risk today falls on mountain users who trigger slides themselves, while naturally caused avalanches still account for a substantial share of events.
A notable trend is the increase in off‑piste and ski‑tour activity, which expands exposure to high‑risk terrain. Improved forecasting and rescue capabilities—with better equipment and faster response times—have helped keep fatalities from rising in step with activity levels.
The historical toll was 87 deaths in 2023–24 and 70 in 2024–25. The danger remains real for those venturing into avalanche-prone terrain.
Climate change: Implications for avalanches
Climate projections suggest a future with fewer, smaller avalanches in many regions as warming shortens snow seasons and reduces overall snow cover. However, a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, potentially driving heavier snowfall events at high elevations that could increase avalanche magnitude in certain zones.
Warmer conditions also tend to produce denser, wetter avalanches, which can be more destructive and pose unique hazards to skiers and mountaineers. This dual effect means risk may shift geographically and seasonally, requiring adaptive strategies from avalanche services and backcountry users alike.
Safety implications and recommendations
- Check forecasts continuously and respect warning levels before any backcountry trip.
- Carry essential safety gear—beacon, probe, shovel—and know how to use it under time pressure.
- Train in avalanche companion rescue and decision-making, especially before off‑piste travel.
- Plan routes with terrain escape options and avoid high‑risk slopes during loading and wind events.
- Adjust plans when weather or snowpack indicators signal elevated risk, and create contingency plans for rapid weather changes.
Here is the source article for this story: Less snow, or more risk? What you need to know about avalanches and climate change