This blog post examines the difficult 2024–2025 soybean harvest season in Tennessee, where a convergence of inflation, extreme weather and international trade disputes has pushed many producers to the brink.
Drawing on on-the-ground reporting and three decades of experience in agricultural science and farm policy, I explain the agricultural, economic and policy drivers behind projected losses, what they mean for farms large and small, and pragmatic steps that can help mitigate future risk.
The scale of the crisis: weather, costs and lost markets
Tennessee soybean farmers confronted a perfect storm this year.
Spring floods forced replanting in many areas and were followed by a severe summer drought that slashed yields across much of the state.
At the same time persistent inflation elevated input prices — seed, fertilizer, fuel and especially equipment costs that have been amplified by tariffs — increasing the cost of production.
Compounding these production challenges, international trade tensions have dramatically disrupted markets.
China, historically Tennessee’s largest soybean buyer, remains a constrained market because of trade disputes.
As a result, farmgate prices for soybeans are trading at levels that are unsustainable for many producers: prices remain more than a dollar below the break-even point of $11.72 per bushel.
The University and extension estimates project an average loss of about $84 per acre for soybeans in 2025, translating into nearly $110 million statewide.
When combined with losses in cotton, corn and wheat, total losses across Tennessee’s four major row crops could top $360 million this year.
On the ground: stories that illustrate systemic risk
Farmers like Lauderdale County’s Alan Meadows describe the season as devastating.
He and many others had to replant after back-to-back floods and then watched crops suffer during drought, all while paying more for equipment due to tariffs and higher interest rates on borrowed capital.
Younger producers, with less equity and collateral, are particularly vulnerable; many face the prospect of using their farms, homes, or vehicles to secure short-term operating loans.
Policy responses and market signals
Industry leaders and extension specialists warn that without a renewed and robust federal Farm Bill to strengthen the safety net, many operations may not survive another year of losses.
Recent legislation included biofuel incentives that could, in time, expand domestic demand for soy-derived products.
However, those benefits are unlikely to arrive quickly enough to offset immediate losses.
Market signals from trade negotiations, tariff policy, and biofuel mandates will be central to recovery.
Farmers cannot control the weather or global geopolitics, but policy can reduce exposure to catastrophic income loss and smooth adjustment to changing market conditions.
Practical steps for resilience
There is no single fix, but a layered approach reduces risk.
Key actions include:
As an agricultural scientist with thirty years in the field, I emphasize that resilience requires both on-farm adaptation and timely policy action.
Here is the source article for this story: TN Soybean farmers face ‘desperate situation’ amid inflation, weather extremes and tariffs