If you’re planning Thanksgiving in Arizona, you’ll usually find mild and comfortable weather, but there are always a few surprises. Expect average daytime highs in the low 70s and nighttime lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Rain hardly ever shows up, and the skies tend to stay clear. That makes it pretty easy to plan both indoor and outdoor activities.
Arizona stands out because the weather changes a lot depending on where you are. Phoenix and Tucson often stay warm and dry, but head up to higher places like Flagstaff and you might get chilly air or even snow.
This variety means you can pick between a sunny desert hike or a cozy mountain escape. It’s kind of nice to have options, right?
Knowing what’s coming helps you plan, whether you’re hosting in the backyard or driving across the state. Most years, Thanksgiving in Arizona brings reliable weather, so you can focus on the holiday and not stress about the forecast.
Typical Thanksgiving Temperatures in Arizona
Thanksgiving usually brings mild afternoons, cooler evenings, and almost no rain in Arizona. The weather shifts a lot between cities and elevations, so Phoenix might feel totally different from Flagstaff or Tucson.
Average Highs and Lows in Major Cities
In Phoenix, you’ll usually see daytime highs in the low 70s °F and nighttime lows near 50 °F. Some years, highs have jumped into the upper 80s, but on the flip side, the coldest highs have dropped into the 50s.
Tucson runs a bit cooler, with average highs in the upper 60s to low 70s °F and lows in the mid-40s °F.
Flagstaff sits much higher and gets a lot colder. Highs stay in the upper 40s to low 50s °F, and lows can easily fall below freezing, sometimes into the 20s °F.
With such a big range, you’ll need to pack differently depending on where you’re headed. In Phoenix, a light jacket works, but up north, you’ll want heavier layers.
Temperature Trends Leading Up to Thanksgiving
By late November, that intense desert heat is long gone. In Phoenix and Tucson, you’ll notice temperatures steadily dropping from early fall highs in the 90s °F down to the 70s °F by Thanksgiving.
Northern Arizona cools off even faster. Flagstaff’s highs fall from the 60s °F in October to the 40s °F by Thanksgiving. You might even get frost or a little snow in the days before the holiday.
This cooling trend makes Thanksgiving a great time for outdoor fun in central and southern Arizona. Up north, though, you’ll want to keep an eye out for winter travel precautions.
Daytime Versus Nighttime Conditions
Desert regions enjoy warm days. Sunshine usually pushes Phoenix and Tucson into the 70s °F, which feels just about perfect for walks or outdoor gatherings.
But after sunset, temperatures drop fast. In Phoenix, lows near 50 °F are pretty normal. Up in Flagstaff, nighttime temps can fall 20 to 30 degrees lower than the day’s high.
So, you’ll want to dress in layers. A short-sleeve shirt might be fine at noon, but you’ll probably reach for a sweater or coat once it’s dark.
Regional Differences Across Arizona
Arizona’s elevations create some wild contrasts in Thanksgiving weather. Low desert cities stay mild and dry. Higher terrain brings colder days and sometimes snow.
Understanding these differences makes planning way easier, especially for clothes or travel.
Phoenix and the Valley
Phoenix and the Valley usually offer some of the warmest Thanksgiving weather in Arizona. Normal highs reach the low 70s °F, with lows around 50 °F.
Rain almost never shows up, with measurable precipitation recorded in just a handful of years.
You’ll get mostly sunny skies and dry air. Afternoons feel great outside, but evenings cool down quickly. Usually, a light jacket is all you need after sunset.
Sometimes, things get weird. The record high hit the upper 80s °F, and the coldest mornings have dropped close to freezing. Still, most years are pleasant, so outdoor holiday events go off without a hitch.
Tucson and Southern Arizona
Tucson sits a bit higher than Phoenix, so you’ll get cooler nights but similar daytime warmth. Typical highs reach the upper 60s to low 70s °F, and lows dip into the mid-40s °F.
Rain doesn’t happen much, and skies usually stay clear. The air feels crisp in the mornings, thanks to the dry desert climate.
You might want a sweater early, but by afternoon, short sleeves feel comfortable.
Thanksgiving extremes have ranged from chilly mornings near freezing to highs in the 80s °F. These swings don’t happen as often as in Phoenix, but it’s worth checking the forecast before you plan something outside.
Flagstaff and Northern Highlands
Flagstaff and other high-elevation spots bring a totally different vibe. Average highs only reach the upper 40s to low 50s °F, and lows often drop into the 20s °F. Freezing nights are pretty standard, and snow can show up as early as November.
You’ll see more moisture here than in the desert. Light snow or rain showers can pop up, but lots of years stay dry. Morning roads can get icy, especially where the sun doesn’t hit.
If you’re headed to northern Arizona for Thanksgiving, you really need to prep for winter. Warm coats, gloves, and layers are a must. The colder weather also means people tend to gather indoors more than in the desert.
Precipitation and Rainfall Patterns
Rain barely makes an appearance in Arizona during late November, but it’s not impossible. History shows that while most Thanksgivings are dry, a few years have brought measurable rainfall that can mess with outdoor plans.
Chances of Rain on Thanksgiving
Phoenix weather records going back more than 100 years show measurable rain on Thanksgiving in only 16 out of 128 years. That’s about a 1 in 8 chance of seeing rain at all.
Most years, you’ll get dry weather, with clear or partly cloudy skies.
When rain does show up, it’s usually light. The wettest Thanksgiving on record in Phoenix brought 1.29 inches in 1919. More recently, it’s just been a trace or less than a tenth of an inch.
Snow won’t bother you in Phoenix or Tucson, but up north in Flagstaff, you might get rain mixed with snow if a cold front rolls in. These are rare, but good to know if you’re traveling north.
You’re way more likely to have a dry day than a wet one, but it’s smart to check the forecast if you’re planning to be outside.
Monthly Rainfall Averages for November
November ranks as one of Arizona’s driest months. In Phoenix, the average monthly rainfall is about 0.7 inches, and most years see even less.
Tucson averages close to 0.6 inches, while Flagstaff, being higher up, gets around 1.5 inches.
Most of this rain comes from passing Pacific storms. These storms don’t show up often, and when they do, showers are usually brief instead of soaking.
Compared to the summer monsoon months, November brings almost no rain. The chance of rain is much lower than in July or August, when thunderstorms are everywhere.
For most planning, you can count on dry weather in November, with just a slightly higher chance of rain up north.
Wind and Sky Conditions
Late November usually brings light to moderate breezes and sometimes stronger gusts. Skies tend to stay clear or mostly sunny, but sometimes weather systems bring in clouds.
Typical Wind Speeds and Gusts
Winds around Thanksgiving are usually calm to mild in the low desert areas like Phoenix and Tucson. Average speeds hover between 5–10 miles per hour, which feels just fine for being outside.
You might get stronger winds in open valleys or higher up. Some years, gusts hit 15–20 miles per hour, especially when a cold front is moving through. Those gusts can make it feel colder than you’d expect.
Northern Arizona, like Flagstaff and the Mogollon Rim, gets windier than the southern deserts. Gusts of 20–30 miles per hour aren’t unusual during late fall. If you’re traveling or hiking up there, get ready for cooler, brisker weather.
Most holiday events in central and southern Arizona don’t get disrupted by wind. Light breezes actually help keep things feeling fresh and pleasant.
Cloud Cover and Sunshine Trends
Arizona skies in late November are mostly clear most of the time. In Phoenix, you’ll usually get sunshine on Thanksgiving Day, and only a few years have brought much cloud cover or rain.
Clouds are more likely up north, where Pacific storms can bring gray skies. Even then, it rarely stays overcast all day, and the sun usually breaks through.
On average, you get 6–8 hours of sunshine per day across most of Arizona during this time. That’s less than summer but still plenty for outdoor plans.
If a storm passes through, clouds might hang around for a day or two, but that’s not the norm. Most years, you’ll enjoy bright skies that really show off Arizona’s desert and mountain views.
Snow Possibilities in Higher Elevations
Snow in late November usually shows up in Arizona’s higher spots, especially in the north. Elevation really decides if you’ll see flurries or a real snowstorm.
Flagstaff and Northern Arizona Snowfall
Flagstaff claims the title of snowiest city in Arizona, picking up close to 100 inches of snow each year. By late November, the first significant storms often arrive.
At 7,000 feet, even moderate storms can bring measurable snow.
Nearby, the San Francisco Peaks, Mogollon Rim, and White Mountains also get regular snow. These spots sit between 6,000 and 9,000 feet, so they’re much colder than the desert.
Snow starts sticking earlier here than in lower areas.
Travel can get tricky when storms move in. Roads like Interstate 17 to Flagstaff or State Route 87 toward Payson often get icy and crowded during holidays.
The Arizona Department of Transportation keeps plows and crews ready, but you might still run into delays.
Snow Levels and Accumulation Chances
Snow levels in Arizona shift with each storm and temperature swing. Around Thanksgiving, the snow line often drops to 5,000–5,500 feet, but a strong cold front can push it even lower.
That means towns at mid-elevations might get a dusting, while higher peaks get dumped on.
During big storms, places above 6,000 feet can pick up 1–2 feet of snow. Lower elevations between 3,000 and 5,500 feet usually get lighter amounts, around 2–6 inches.
Elevation really is the best clue for guessing snowfall.
If you’re traveling, remember that strong winds often come with these storms. Blowing snow can make it tough to see and drive, even if the snow isn’t deep.
Packing chains, checking the forecast, and building in extra travel time are all smart moves for a safe trip.
Weather Impacts on Thanksgiving Activities
Thanksgiving in Arizona usually brings mild, dry weather. Still, temperatures can swing from cool mornings to warm afternoons. That can really change how you plan outdoor meals, games, or travel across the state.
Outdoor Gatherings and Events
Most years, you can enjoy Thanksgiving outside in Arizona. Daytime highs in Phoenix and other desert cities usually land in the low 70s. Patio dining, backyard barbecues, or tossing a football around all feel pretty comfortable.
But evenings cool off fast, with lows often dropping into the upper 40s. If you want to stay outside after sunset, you’ll probably need heaters or a fire pit.
In higher spots like Flagstaff, the air gets much colder. Sometimes you’ll even see snow, so indoor gatherings make a lot more sense there.
Rain doesn’t happen often, but it’s not impossible. Phoenix only gets measurable Thanksgiving rain about one year out of every eight. If you keep a light jacket and a backup indoor plan, you’ll be ready for surprises.
Tips for outdoor plans:
- Start events earlier in the day for warmer conditions.
- Keep blankets or layers handy for guests.
- Check local forecasts, especially if you’re in northern Arizona.
Travel Considerations
You usually deal with fewer weather-related travel issues in Arizona than in a lot of other states. Roads in Phoenix and Tucson tend to stay dry, and airports almost never shut down for storms. Honestly, flying in and out of central and southern Arizona feels pretty easy most of the time.
Northern Arizona, though, can throw you a curveball. Snow and icy roads show up around Flagstaff or the Mogollon Rim every so often. If you’re driving through those areas, you’ll want to give yourself extra time and keep some winter gear handy, just in case.
Rain doesn’t happen often, but when it does, it can make roads slick and cut down visibility fast. Thanksgiving brings heavy traffic, so you might find that slows you down more than the weather does.
Travel reminders:
- Check mountain forecasts if you’re heading north.
- Try leaving early to dodge the worst traffic.
- Pack water and supplies in your car, especially for longer trips.